The Central Bank left the official dollar exchange rate on October 16 below 84

The Central Bank of Russia set the official exchange rate of the US dollar on Friday, October 16, at the level of 83.7600, the euro - 93.7693, the yuan - 12.4991. This is reported on the website of the regulator.

On Thursday, October 15, the Central Bank established the following exchange rates: dollar - 83.9497, euro - 93.9229, yuan - 12.5358.

Thus, the dollar fell by 18.97 kopecks, the euro by 15.36 kopecks, and the yuan by 3.67 kopecks.

The official rates of the Central Bank of the dollar and euros are used for settlements on contracts on the futures market of the Moscow Exchange, including futures contracts for the dollar / ruble (Si), euro / ruble (Eu), dollar / yuan (UCNY), euro / dollar (ED), dollar / tenge (UKZT), perpetual futures for the dollar / ruble pair (USDRUBF), euro / ruble (EURRUBF), futures for the RTS index (RTS and RTSM) and a number of other instruments.

At auction on Thursday, October 15, the ruble weakened against foreign currencies. By 17:34 MSK, the yuan exchange rate (CNY/RUB TOM) on the Mosbirzh increased by 0.67% compared to the level before the closing of trading on Wednesday and amounted to 12.53.

Tool USDRUB TOM at 17:00 MSK rose by 0.47%, reaching .84.35.

The USDRUB TOM instrument reflects transactions with the dollar/ruble currency pair. Payments are made the next day in rubles. The time of concluding transactions is from 9:00 to 19:00 MSK.

Trading of the currency pair USDRUB TOM was held on the Moscow Exchange until June 2024. Officially, trading in the dollar was suspended after the Moscow Exchange was included in the US sanctions list. The dollar continued to trade on the over-the-counter market, where trading operations are conducted directly between participants, without the mediation of the exchange. Deals on the USDRUB TOM instrument resumed in mid-February 2026.

What now affects the ruble exchange rate

According to Spartak Sobolev, head of the Alfa-Forex investment strategy research department, the correctional dynamics of ruble pairs continues on the Russian foreign exchange market with local strengthening of the national currency. According to him, the easing of sanctions on the export of petroleum products from Russia by the United States was the trigger for the growth of the ruble at the beginning of weekly trading. Expensive Urals oil above $100-110 per barrel provides additional support for the Russian currency.

On October 9, US President Donald Trump announced an agreement with Russian President Vladimir Putin to supply Russian diesel fuel to world markets.

Later, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov reported that foreign exchange earnings from the export of diesel fuel will support the balance of payments of Russia.

The analyst also adds that in the second half of October we can expect an increase in export activity. With a high interest rate, these factors can strengthen the position of the Russian currency. At the same time, the main pressure on the market now comes from the operations of monetary authorities within the framework of fiscal rule and geopolitical uncertainty.

In the period from October 7 to November 6, the Ministry of Finance will buy currency and gold under the budget rule for a total of у 279.42 billion. The daily volume of purchases will thus amount to Е12.7 billion. For comparison: from September 7 to October 6, the Ministry of Finance under the budget rule bought currency for у2.5 billion per day. That is, daily purchases have increased fivefold.

In addition, the Central Bank simultaneously daily until the end of the year sells currency for у0.58 billion. Thus, net purchases by the monetary authorities will amount to 12.12 billion a day against 1.92 billion a month earlier (an increase of 6.3 times).

What will happen to the ruble exchange rate next: expert opinions

Bogdan Zvaric, head of analysis of banking and financial markets at PSB, believes that the dollar may take a step towards the 83 mark. In his opinion, the main factor for the foreign exchange market is the gradual increase in supply from exporters. This is due to revenues from the sale of oil at higher prices in September, when there was an improvement in the situation for Russian raw materials.

In addition, according to Zvarich, the expectation of further growth in supply before the end of the month due to increased contributions to the budget from oil and gas companies may also support speculative purchases in the ruble. This will put additional pressure on major world currencies.

Expert "BCS World of Investments" Mikhail Zeltzer, on the contrary, allows the option of a local rebound. So, according to the expert, by the end of autumn, the USD / RUB pair can return to и85, EUR / RUB - to и95, CNY / RUB - closer to и12.7.

The news is supplemented