Russia is waiting for three months of weather surprises due to El Niño

The World Meteorological Organization presented an updated forecast for the period from November 2026 to January 2027. Information on new calculations of climate models was provided by the weather center Phobos. According to these data, a significant part of the planet, including Russia, is likely to noticeable changes in the temperature regime. The end of autumn and the beginning of winter can be marked by serious weather anomalies.

On most land, the probability that the average temperature will exceed the climate norm is increased. For the European territory of Russia, this figure is estimated at 40-50%, and in the northern regions it reaches 60-70%. The forecast refers to the average temperature for three months. It does not exclude frost and snowfall in certain periods.

The expected deviations are associated with an increase in El Niño. This phenomenon occurs due to the heating of surface waters in the tropical Pacific Ocean. According to WMO calculations, from November to January, the deviation of water temperature in a key area of the ocean can be up to + 3.8 ° C. The peak of the phenomenon is predicted in December.

Precipitation will also be affected. In the European territory of Russia, the probability of exceeding the usual amount of rain and snow is 40-50%. More marked deviations are expected in Central and East Asia, especially in coastal areas.

Experts explain that the seasonal forecast describes the most likely nature of the weather. It does not allow you to name the temperature or rainfall for a particular city on a specific date. Even with an increased probability of a warm season, certain periods can be frosty.

The expert revealed what awaits Russia because of El Niño

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