The dollar is losing, the ruble is strengthening: what is happening in the foreign exchange market of Belarus

After a relatively small increase in the exchange rate in August, the dollar lost 1.5% in the Belarusian foreign exchange market in September and returned to annual average values. In September, the Belarusian foreign exchange market slightly leveled off, which is expected in October - in the material of the correspondent of the Minsk-Novosti agency.

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Dollar: results of September

At the last trading of the first month of autumn on the Belarusian Currency and Stock Exchange, the dollar stopped at the value of 3.0207 BYN. In September, it decreased by 1.21%, and the growth rate of the “American” by the beginning of the year decreased to 4.07%. Nevertheless, last month, the second largest dollar trading volume was formed at the bidding of the BVFB - 387.343 million USD, which indicates its demand in the domestic market. It is possible that a significant part of the volume went to replenish the international reserve assets of the National Bank, since this year the state budget conducts peak payments to service external obligations.

Russian ruble: proportional growth

The exchange rate of the Russian ruble for September has changed proportionally, that is, increased for the month by 1.22%. By the beginning of the year, the backlog of the Russian currency decreased to -2.96 percent. On the last day of September, trading closed at 3.5962 BYN for 100 RUB. The volume of trading in the Russian ruble on the BVFB for the month amounted to 100 726.280 million RUB, or about 1,200.55 million USD in equivalent.

Internal support factors

The dynamics of the domestic foreign exchange market in September was formed under the influence of internal and external factors. The first, mainly, became factors of support for the Russian and Belarusian currency. The main and most long-term of these is the Bank of Russia’s continued tight monetary policy, which does not change the key rate of 14%. Inflationary processes in the eastern neighbors remain above forecast levels (6.25%), GDP growth is minimal. Hence, the monetary policy of the Central Bank of Russia remains unchanged.

The second factor supporting the Russian and, consequently, the Belarusian ruble is the high price and growing demand for Russian oil. In September, oil exports from Russia returned to the level of 2022, and the price of the Russian Urals brand exceeds the benchmark Brent grade. The latter this week fell to the level of 95-98 USD per barrel. The Russian Urals goes at a price above 110 USD per barrel.

The delayed effect of oil revenues

Revenues from high prices for the export of hydrocarbons are deferred, so it is likely that in October-November additional foreign currency receipts to the domestic market, first, will significantly reduce the deficit of the Russian state budget. The Russian ruble will receive additional support.

External factors

The external factors shaping the domestic foreign exchange market, of course, include the decision of the US Federal Reserve to raise the interest rate at the last meeting of the Open Market Committee on September 16, 2026. The Fed raised the rate from 3.75% to 4%. The reason is the same – rising inflation amid rising motor fuel prices, driven by the same high crude oil prices and supply problems.

The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has led to the fact that the price of black gold for several months held at around 100 USD per barrel. And the expansion of the conflict adds problems with the supply of diesel fuel and aviation kerosene. The price of 1 liter of diesel in Europe is firmly fixed above 2 EUR with the prospect of growth. But the prospects of ending this conflict are not yet visible.

Political background

It is possible that the current Republican administration of the United States on the eve of the midterm elections on November 3 will take some steps to gain political points, but the opposing parties see and understand this, so the bidding becomes tougher. October will be a crucial month in this regard.

All this forces the Fed to tighten monetary policy and raise the interest rate. The exchange rate of the main currency pair EUR / USD against this background is declining to 1.128, the yield of 10-year US government bonds jumped to 5.362 percent for the first time since 2001 (!).

Forecast for October

Thus, the factors that shaped exchange rates in September remain in force and are even gaining momentum. Perhaps this is how the dollar fell to 3.0051 BYN on the first day of October at the BWFB. In the Russian over-the-counter market, the dollar tests a level below 83.4 RUB, the euro rolls back to 94.4 RUB under the influence of weakening in the world market.

And it will not be surprising if in October the dollar will fix slightly below 3 BYN, and the Russian ruble, respectively, will be above 3.60 BYN for 100 rubles.