The ruble is gaining strength, the dollar is retreating under the onslaught of oil

The current week on the Belarusian foreign exchange market began with a minimal decline in the exchange rate of the US currency. However, the situation develops in such a way that this trend can develop, and by the end of the week the rate of the “buck” will fall below the psychological three rubles. What drives down the dollar or, in other words, the ruble up? Details - in the material of the correspondent of the agency "Minsk-Novosti".

At the currency trading of the Belarusian Currency and Stock Exchange on Monday, September 21, the Belarusian ruble strengthened to the entire currency basket. The dollar decreased in price by 0.04 %, the euro - by 0.22 %, the Russian ruble - by 0.06 %. The exchange rate of the Chinese yuan has increased, but for our compatriots this currency is more exotic, although for the state budget and domestic business it is a very important component of foreign economic turnover. But let’s focus on currencies that are more familiar to Belarusians.

The dollar exchange rate at the end of trading decreased to a quote of 3.0222 BYN. In parallel with this, the dollar exchange rate in the Russian OTC market in the first half of the day was trading slightly above 84 rubles. By the end of the trading day, which in Russia ends at 23:50, but in fact quotes cease to be exhibited by about 18:00-18:30, the US currency has rolled back to 83,466 RUB.

Its decline in the Russian and therefore the Belarusian foreign exchange market is largely due to the growing revenues of the Russian budget from high oil prices in August and early September of this year. At a time when Brent’s benchmark crude was rising to $108 a barrel, Russia’s Urals and Siberian Light were trading around $96-96 with growing demand. In general, the supply of Russian oil in August increased by almost 17%, which together with the high price already created a surplus of the Russian budget in August of about 660 billion rubles.

In addition, as we remember, at the end of August, the Russian Ministry of Finance made an unexpected decision to reduce from September 7 to October 6 the volume of foreign currency purchases in the domestic market from 5.9 billion rubles a day to 2.5 billion rubles. And just on Monday, September 21, Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov announced plans to reduce the price of cutting off the budget rule from 2027 to 2030 to $50 per barrel. Recall that the current cutoff price is $59, and such a sharp decrease in the key parameter of the budget rule can contribute to the filling of the National Welfare Fund. Perhaps not, it will depend on actual oil prices. But so far, the current oil market situation is in favor of the Russian ruble.

At the end of this week in Russia there is a tax period. At this time, the demand for ruble liquidity is growing and the supply of foreign currency in the domestic market is increasing. It is possible that this factor will also push the dollar down, which at the end of the week may fall below the important level of three rubles.

Given that the current situation in the energy market is protracted and correction, although possible, but unpredictable, we can assume that high prices and oil demand will support the Russian ruble for some time, and with it the Belarusian currency. Thus, the dollar’s turn to growth is unlikely in the coming weeks. And ruble deposits remain a reliable option for your savings.