The Central Bank left the dollar for the weekend and October 5 below 84

The Central Bank of Russia set the official exchange rate of the US dollar for the weekend and Monday, October 5, at the level of 83.4839, the euro - 94.3201, the yuan - 12.4328. This is reported on the website of the regulator.

On Friday, October 2, the Central Bank established the following exchange rates: dollar - 83.2454, euro - 94.5252, yuan - 12.4028.

Thus, the dollar rose by 23.85 kopecks, the euro fell by 20.51 kopecks, and the yuan became more expensive by 3 kopecks.

The official rates of the Central Bank of the dollar and euros are used for settlements on contracts on the futures market of the Moscow Exchange, including futures contracts for the dollar / ruble (Si), euro / ruble (Eu), dollar / yuan (UCNY), euro / dollar (ED), dollar / tenge (UKZT), perpetual futures for the dollar / ruble pair (USDRUBF), euro / ruble (EURRUBF), futures for the RTS index (RTS and RTSM) and a number of other instruments.

At auction on Friday, October 2, the ruble weakened against foreign currencies. By 17:00 GMT, the yuan exchange rate (CNY/RUB TOM) on the Mosbirzh increased by 0.7% compared to the level to the close of trading of the previous day and amounted to 12.505.

The USDRUB TOM tool rose by 0.6%, reaching .84.3075.

The USDRUB TOM instrument reflects transactions with the dollar/ruble currency pair. Payments are made the next day in rubles. The time of concluding transactions is from 9:00 to 19:00 MSK.

Trading of the currency pair USDRUB TOM was held on the Moscow Exchange until June 2024. Officially, trading in the dollar was suspended after the Moscow Exchange was included in the US sanctions list. The dollar continued to trade on the over-the-counter market, where trading operations are conducted directly between participants, without the mediation of the exchange. Deals on the USDRUB TOM instrument resumed in mid-February.

What now affects the ruble exchange rate

The ruble is restrainedly weakening due to long holidays in China and a scant news background that does not allow to actively build up positions in the foreign exchange market, said Evgeny Loktyukhov, head of the economic and industry analysis department of the PSB. From October 1 to 7, China celebrates Education Day.

As the main factors supporting the Russian currency, Oleg Reshetnikov, an expert at BCS World of Investments, highlighted the high cost of energy resources in world markets. High oil and gas prices increase the supply of currency in the market by exporters, while demand for foreign exchange declines as the holiday period comes to an end. The factor of support for the ruble was the September pause in the reduction of the Central Bank rate after many months of easing monetary conditions, the expert said.

Over the past days, the ruble has managed to reverse the dynamics in its favor, but the stability of this movement is ambiguous, says the General Director of Alfa-Forex Guzel Protsenko. China’s exchanges are closed for the “golden week”, which reduces liquidity, increases the volatility of the yuan against the ruble and makes the exchange rate more sensitive to local imbalances of supply and demand. In such conditions, even relatively small volumes of transactions can cause noticeable fluctuations.

What will happen to the ruble exchange rate next: expert opinions

Yaroslav Kabakov, Strategy Director of Finam, believes that the nearest trigger for the foreign exchange market may be the decision of the Ministry of Finance on the volume of currency transactions in October, which should be made public on October 5. Before that, the foreign exchange market is likely to move near current levels, and the holidays in China will further reduce liquidity on the yuan.

If the Russian Ministry of Finance in October will increase purchases in the market, it may have an adverse impact on the ruble, said Oleg Reshetnikov. In September, taking into account the actions of the Central Bank, net purchases were about ые1.9 billion. In previous months, the size of operations was multiples higher. And if the purchase amounts rise again – and there are grounds for this, given high oil prices – the currency could begin to strengthen again, the BCS World of Investment warned.

Commodity and regulatory factors in October can continue to play for the gradual strengthening of the ruble, believes Oleg Reshetnikov. Intensification of the negotiation process can also reduce the attractiveness of foreign currency assets, given the high ruble rates. In contrast, there will be an increase in inflation and a fall in OFZ yields associated with a revaluation of risks. If geopolitical risks do not escalate sharply, in such conditions in October, the ruble can stay in the range of 12.3-12.7 against the yuan. Breaking the mark 12.3 on the CNY / RUB pair will shift the focus below, to the mark of 12 per yuan.

Analysts of VTB My Investments named among the factors of the ruble strength a decrease in the share of imports in GDP (including due to import substitution), the end of the investment cycle associated with the restructuring of the economy, and a lower intensity of outflows on the financial account compared to previous years. The effects of high oil prices on the exchange rate are largely mitigated by currency operations under the budget rule. By the end of the year, they expect the dollar to be 86 and the yuan to be 12.8.

In 2027, the planned reduction in the price of cutting off oil under the budget rule, all other things being equal, will lead to an increase in net purchases of currency from the Ministry of Finance within the budget rule and, accordingly, to greater pressure on the ruble, VTB My Investments said. Risks for the ruble are associated with uncertainty about the physical volume of Russian exports, as well as with the repayment of foreign exchange obligations by companies. By the end of 2027, according to experts, the dollar may rise to the level of 90, and the yuan will be close to 13.7.

The news is supplemented