Inflation expectations of Russians in September increased to 14.2%

Inflation expectations of the population of Russia in September 2026 increased by 0.5 percentage points, from 13.7 to 14.2% per annum, follows from the survey “infom”, conducted by order of the Bank of Russia from 3 to 15 September.

The indicator again moved to growth after a significant decline last month and approached the result of July 2026, when inflation expectations rose to a maximum since March 2022 and amounted to 14.7%.

The estimate of the annual inflation observed by the population in September also increased and amounted to 15.1 against 14.3% a month earlier.

Over the past 12 months, the maximum level of inflation expected by the population was recorded in July 2026 - 14.7%. The minimum inflation expectations of the population were in June 2026 - 12.4%.

According to the survey, the assessment of observed inflation among respondents with savings increased to 13.6 against 12.7% a month earlier. For non-saving respondents, the estimate of expected inflation also increased to 16.3 against 15.5 percent in August.

The estimate of the expected inflation on the horizon of the year for survey participants with savings increased from 12 to 12.8%. The rating of respondents without savings also increased to 15.4% (in August it was 15%).

The share of those who have savings in September fell to 33% (in August they were 37%), and those who have no savings rose to 64% (in August – 58%). The remaining respondents found it difficult to answer.

According to Rosstat, from 8 to 14 September, the consumer price index increased by 0.02%. A week earlier, growth was 0.05%. Since the beginning of 2026, consumer prices have increased by 4.74%.

The Ministry of Economic Development reported that year-on-year inflation on September 14 was at 6.24% compared to 6.29% on September 7.

Why inflation expectations have risen: experts

A factor that can speak in favor of the growth of inflation expectations is the ongoing fuel crisis and the increase in the cost of fuel, said Ivan Taskin, head of the department of analytics of fixed income instruments at Vector Capital. All other factors, in his opinion, spoke more in favor of the decline in the indicator (seasonal product deflation and stabilization of the ruble exchange rate).

Gasoline is a classic product-marker, and the population reads its rise in price instantly, and supply interruptions and queues at gas stations form a stable extrapolation to all other goods and services, Ivan Efanov, a leading analyst at Digital Broker, reminded. He also believes that the growth of inflation expectations is caused by the situation in the fuel market.

In August and early September, there was a weakening of the ruble, which could be interpreted by the population as a pro-inflationary factor, Natalia Vashchelyuk, a senior analyst at the First Criminal Code, recalled.

“The growth of inflationary expectations of the population may be associated with the psychological effect of the shortage of gasoline at gas stations, the rise in the cost of imported goods, as well as expectations for the growth of tariffs for utilities and transportation,” commented Alexander Golovtsov, head of the analytical department of the PSB Criminal Code.

What happens to the key rate

At a meeting on September 11, the Bank of Russia decided to keep the key rate at 14% per annum.

The decision of the Central Bank was the first pause in the current cycle of easing monetary policy (MCP), which began in June 2025. The last time the Central Bank left the rate unchanged in April 2025 - at a record level of 21%.

“Current price pressures have increased significantly in recent months. According to the Bank of Russia, stable price growth accelerated to 5-6% per year, primarily due to the impact of temporary reductions in production capacity in certain industries. As these effects are exhausted and with a restrained growth in aggregate demand, the decline in stable inflation will resume, the regulator said in a press release. In the July release, the Central Bank estimated stable inflation in the range of 4-5% per year.

The next meeting of the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia, which may decide to change the level of the key rate, is scheduled for October 23, 2026.