Rosstat recorded a decrease in shadow business operations to 2.6% of GDP

According to Rosstat, the volume of the unobserved economy of Russia for 2024 amounted to 10.9% of GDP. The indicator decreased compared to 2018, when it was estimated at 11.7% of GDP. The estimate was published in August 2026 (this is the latest data).

In the structure of the indicator, there is a multidirectional dynamics. The share of companies’ shadow operations – legitimate activities deliberately hidden or understated, including for tax evasion – fell from 4% of GDP in 2018 to 2.6% in 2024. In contrast, the share of the informal sector and household production – personal subsidiary farms, self-employed, services for themselves, including the notional cost of living in their own housing – increased from 7.7 to 8.3% of GDP.

The largest share of unobserved activity was recorded in real estate transactions - 69.2% (the main contribution is provided by the assessment of living in one's own housing). This is followed by agriculture (32.1%), hotels and catering (16.9%), construction (11.3%).

At the same time, illegal activities (theft, robbery, extortion, forgery of documents) are not taken into account by Rosstat, as they do not create new value. According to the European University in St. Petersburg, the total cost of crime in Russia in 2021 amounted to 1.3% of GDP.

According to World Economics, the share of the informal economy of Russia is 25.2% of GDP, which corresponds to the middle of the world ranking: the indicator is higher than in Germany (9.5%) and the United States (6.5%), but lower than in Kazakhstan (32.8%) and Belarus (33.1%). However, the methodology of World Economics is broader than that of Rosstat: it includes informal employment, household production and unaccounted cash payments.

What is associated with the reduction of shadow operations of companies and the growth of the informal sector – read the subscription RBC.