Potanin announced the passed limit of the tax burden on business
The fiscal burden on the economy has reached the limit, which can create the opposite effect for budget revenues, says businessman Vladimir Potanin. He sees the risk that the tax base will shrink due to a lack of investment
The authorities and business have passed the limit when the level of tax burden on the economy begins to work against budget revenues, the lack of investment begins to affect economic growth. Such statements were made in an interview with RBC TV channel businessman, President of Norilsk Nickel Vladimir Potanin.
“Growth is low, so the tax base is shrinking and spending is rising. Therefore, there is tension for the budget, Potanin explained.
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According to him, the lack of investment is now a “key problem”. In 2025, investments in fixed assets in Russia decreased by 2.3% in real terms, and in 2026, according to the forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development, will decrease by another 5.4%, a slight growth (+0.2%) is expected only by the end of 2027. “It is because of the recent fall in investment that the economy is cooling. Because of this, there is a significant reduction in the tax base, said Potanin.
The investment correction turned out to be “longer and larger” than planned due to “general uncertainty”, “structural risks” and a slower trajectory of reducing the key rate of the Central Bank, a representative of the Ministry of Economic Development said in September.
According to Potanin, in the fight against the budget deficit, investment items are primarily reduced. “At the same time, there is quite a serious divestment of profits from companies, from small to large, and in various ways. This also reduces the base for investment, he said.
In 2027, the government and the Ministry of Finance plan budget consolidation: total budget expenditures should decrease from 20.9% of GDP in 2026 to 19.6% in 2027. Expenditures are prioritized in socially significant areas and ensuring defense and security, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said. General measures for “optimization” (“consolidation”) of federal spending for 2027 are estimated by the Ministry of Finance at 1.93 trillion rubles. At the same time, in order to balance the budget (including to limit the degree of deviation from the budget rule, which is monitored by the Bank of Russia), the Ministry of Finance plans to additionally collect 1.5 trillion rubles in 2027 through new legislative initiatives, including the spread of a five-step progressive personal income tax scale on “passive” incomes of citizens and the introduction of a tax on superprofits for the mining and metallurgical complex – the latter will be considered based on the excess of prices for raw materials and metals on the base year 2025.
Potanin said that he considers normal a large fiscal burden on business in the current situation, but “only with the money earned, and not with what business does not yet have.” "You can't take taxes, roughly speaking, upfront and on credit," he said. The tax on super-income in the proposed form is rather close to taxes of the working type, said earlier the head of the RSPP, business ombudsman Alexander Shokhin. “The load should be exclusively from profit,” Potanin said. “In a sense, we would like to return to the agreement two years ago: let there be a tougher load, but it will be stable for a certain period of time and focused on profit, not on withdrawal of funds from circulation,” he said.
