Shokhin predicted a pause in the reduction of the key rate until February
The head of the RSPP linked a possible pause in reducing the key rate with the need to assess the consequences of tax changes. According to him, the Central Bank will not change it until at least February 2027.
The Bank of Russia will not reduce the key rate from the current 14% until at least February 2027. This was stated by the head of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs and business ombudsman Alexander Shokhin, reports TASS.
According to him, this is indicated by recent statements by the head of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina that the current level of the rate remains justified.
“The fact that there will be a pause, judging by the comments of Elvira Sakhipzadovna [Nabiullina], can be seen quite clearly, in my opinion. Until February, I personally do not expect any business gifts from the Central Bank in the form of a rate cut. Moreover, since the Central Bank will refer to the fact that they still need to assess the consequences of tax changes, it is difficult to argue with them, Shokhin said.
On October 23, the Board of Directors of the Central Bank left the key rate unchanged at 14% per annum. A similar decision was made at the September meeting. It was the first pause in monetary easing in more than a year.
On November 12, Elvira Nabiullina said in the State Duma that maintaining a high key rate is justified from the point of view of the interests of the economy, citizens and business. "The key rate has been high for three years and will remain high for some time to come," she said.
Nabiullina called this period painful, but necessary to curb inflation: “we have no choice.” The key task of the Central Bank is to ensure moderate and predictable price growth, she stressed.
On the same day, the head of the Central Bank also noted that to ensure the stability of the economy and create affordable sources of lending to Russia, it is necessary to achieve low inflation. Nabiullina called the transition to low inflation a kind of “import substitution” for low global inflation and moderate rates: “This is absolutely necessary for our economy to stand firmly on its feet.”.
According to Rosstat, inflation in Russia for the period from 3 to 9 November amounted to 0.12%, in annual terms - 6.33%.
