The Ministry of Economy presented a draft macro forecast for 2027-2029

The Minister of Economy Maxim Reshetnikov at a government meeting presented a draft forecast of socio-economic development for 2027-2029. This year, the agency expects GDP growth of 0.6%, and then its gradual acceleration - from 1.4% in 2027 to 2.4% in 2029.

The sources of growth, according to the minister, will be consumption, investment and net exports. So, this year, the Ministry of Economy expects consumer demand to grow by 4.1%. Real cash income in 2026 will grow by 0.8%, and in 2027 - by 1.5%. Inflation, according to the Minister, at the end of this year will be 6.8%. By the end of next year, it is expected to decrease to the target 4%.

The price of Brent oil, Maxim Reshetnikov said, in 2027 is laid at $73 per barrel with a decrease to $66 by 2029. Thus, we note, the price forecast was raised in the spring of the Ministry of Economy expected $65 per barrel in 2027 and $61 in 2029. According to the minister, when assessing external conditions, the Ministry of Economy took into account that futures quotes for this period, which are now significantly higher, are volatile and largely reflect the current situation around the Arabian Peninsula. The forecast for Urals oil prices is also raised, but more modest: in 2027, $53 per barrel is expected, in 2029 - $51 (against the previous estimate of $50 for the entire three-year period). This, added Maxim Reshetnikov, is not much higher than the cut-off price of $50 per barrel set from 2027.

The average annual dollar exchange rate this year, the Ministry of Economy estimates at 79.5 rubles / $ - due to a stronger ruble in the second and third quarters, the estimate was reduced (in the previous version of the forecast, 81.5 rubles were laid). For 2027-2029, according to Maxim Reshetnikov, the forecast of a gradual weakening of the ruble remains.

Department of Economics