Experts ruled out the possibility of the imminent return to Russia of payment systems Visa and Mastercard

According to Bakina, since Visa and Mastercard representatives “there was no explanation at all,” it is not known whether they want to return or not. But if they do, they will in any case have to “walk this road again”, since they are not on the Central Bank’s register and, therefore, do not have a license to work.

The remaining cards of the Russians Visa and Mastercard technologically equated to the cards of the domestic system “Mir”, so urgently change them to new ones is not necessary. Banks will replace foreign plastic as it wears or demagnetizes, said Bakina during the lecture “Who can turn off your card?” How Russia Created Payment Sovereignty.”.

The chronology of the rupture of the two systems with the Russian market is as follows. At the end of February 2022, acting in line with Western sanctions, they stopped servicing a number of banks that were included in the restrictive list (SDN List) of the US Treasury. On March 5-6, both companies announced an absolute suspension of all operations on Russian territory. On March 10, the restrictions officially came into force: from this date, the key interbank gateways Visa and Mastercard in Russia stopped working, and, accordingly, cards issued by Russian banks of two payment systems outside the country (in foreign ATMs, stores and on foreign websites).

At the same time, thanks to a law adopted in 2014, all domestic card transactions are processed through the National Payment Card System (NSPK). That is, holders can continue to use them domestically for normal purchases and cash withdrawals. The experts interviewed by MK are unanimous: there can be no question of any scenario of Visa and Mastercard returning to Russia in the foreseeable future.

“The probability is almost zero,” says Freedom Global analyst Vladimir Chernov. This will require not only a significant easing of Western sanctions and the normalization of relations between Moscow and Washington and Brussels, but also the restoration of international financial settlements. In addition, the companies themselves will have to re-register in Russia, coordinate the terms of work with the Central Bank and ensure the fulfillment of Russian requirements for the payment infrastructure. So far, there are no negotiations on this. Moreover, such a prospect is no longer necessary for Russia. In recent years, NSPK, Mir cards and SBP have ensured the operation of internal settlements without the participation of foreign companies.

The main benefit for Russians would be to restore the ability to pay for purchases abroad, use foreign online stores and services, and withdraw cash from foreign ATMs. Competition between payment systems could be an additional advantage, but its impact on the cost of banking services is unlikely to be significant. At the same time, the return of Visa and Mastercard without restoring international servicing of Russian cards will give our consumers almost nothing.

“I don’t see any hints of Visa and Mastercard coming back soon,” says Denis Astafiev, head of fintech platform SharesPro. Even if companies want to come back, it doesn’t mean they’ll just be allowed to continue where they left off. The terms will have to be renegotiated. I now estimate the probability of this as extremely low, though not as zero. Hypothetically, this is possible if sanctions allow such work, the payment systems themselves decide to return and agree with the Russian regulator. The main question is whether settlements with foreign banks will work. And inside Russia, the need for these systems is not the same as before their departure. Even the old Russian Visa and Mastercard continue to be serviced through our infrastructure.

But for travel and foreign purchases, the benefits would be understandable. The ability to pay for a hotel, ticket or foreign service with your card is a convenience that people lack. Now issued by Russian banks Visa and Mastercard for such calculations do not work. But, according to Astafiev, it is far from certain that if the companies return, all cards will immediately be accepted abroad: much will depend on restrictions on specific banks. As for the holders of old cards, they do not need to panic. From the statement of the representative of the Central Bank it follows that urgent replacement is not required: banks will change plastic as they wear. “Two issues should be divided: the safety of the money in the account and the health of the card itself. If it stopped working, it does not mean that the money disappeared, the expert added.

“Easing the sanctions regime by itself will not ensure the restoration of service, since in 2022 Visa and Mastercard made their own corporate decisions to suspend activities in Russia,” said Marina Allenykh, a financial analyst at Bitbanker, an assistant professor at the Financial University under the Russian government. At the same time, Mastercard in an official statement allowed the restoration of work when it became appropriate and legal. Therefore, it is necessary to assess the prospects of return taking into account both regulatory constraints and commercial interests of companies.”.