Financier Furzikova answered the question of what will happen to the ruble exchange rate in October

In October, a dollar can cost from 84 to 90 rubles. The financier Furzikova does not expect a sharp weakening of the Russian currency, but allows noticeable fluctuations in the rate. The ruble will be affected by demand for the currency, export earnings and the decision of the Bank of Russia on the key rate.

At the beginning of the month, the pressure on the ruble, the expert explained to the cleaners of MK in Tula, may increase due to the growth of demand for currency after the end of the quarterly tax period. Later, the Russian currency can be supported by sales of export earnings, operations under the budget rule and high interest rates. Therefore, after the summer weakening, the ruble, according to the expert, will move in a wide range.

The main factor will remain the ratio of demand and supply of foreign currency. The reduction of export revenues reduces its entry into the market. At the same time, not only oil prices are important, but also export volumes, settlement dates and foreign exchange receipts. Even expensive oil itself does not guarantee the strengthening of the ruble, explain Tulyak.

The course will also be affected by budget rule operations. At current oil prices, they generate government demand for foreign currency. The extent of the impact will depend on the volume and timing of such operations.

In the baseline scenario, by the end of October, we expect the exchange rate to be around 87-89 rubles per dollar. Until the end of the year, the benchmark remains in the range of 87-88 rubles per dollar, said Furzikova.

Additional factors will be the budget policy, the situation on the fuel market and the geopolitical background. They can support exchange rate fluctuations, but the expert does not yet see the grounds for a sharp devaluation of the ruble.

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