Pension spurt - 2027

The size of pension payments by age and seniority will grow by 8.5 percent. This is the official inflation forecast for next year. In parallel, the phased increase in the basic pension will continue. Its minimum size will reach 70 percent of the subsistence minimum, and the maximum - 120 percent. The subsistence minimum, in turn, is planned to increase from the current 50,851 tenge to 55,173. As a result, the minimum aggregate pension will be 113,541 tenge, and the maximum - 259,795. These figures are already actively discussed by ordinary pensioners and experts.

What will change for different recipient categories

The basic pension payment received by everyone who has reached retirement age will be calculated from the new subsistence minimum. If the length of participation in the pension system is ten years or less or in its absence, the basic pension will be exactly 70 percent of the subsistence minimum, that is, 38,622 tenge. For each full year of experience over ten years, the size will increase by two percent, but not more than 120 percent of the subsistence minimum. Thus, the maximum basic payment will reach 66,208 tenge. The solidary pension, which is due to those who had worked before 1998, will also increase. Its minimum size will be 74 919 tenge. Adding the minimum basic and minimum solidary, we get the same aggregate minimum wage of 113,541 tenge. The maximum aggregate payment from the budget, according to preliminary calculations, will rise to 259 795 tenge.

It is important to understand that the funded part of the Unified Accumulative Pension Fund is not included in these figures. It is indexed separately, usually at five percent per year, and depends solely on a person’s personal savings. Therefore, the real pension for different people will vary greatly. Some will add tens of thousands from the UAPF to state payments, while others will have almost nothing.

Why 8.5 percent? The Ministry of Finance explains this quite harshly.

Vice-Minister of Finance Abzal Beisenbekuly directly stated: From the beginning of 2027, only solidarity pensions will be increased to the inflation rate plus two percent, which are paid to Kazakhstanis who had at least six months of seniority before 1998. The remaining pension payments will be increased by 8.5 percent, that is, to the official inflation rate, which is projected for 2027.”.

According to him, the principle of “inflation plus two” concerns the solidary part. The basic pension is indexed, but without a leading ratio. The draft budget expressly stipulates that funds for pension payments by age and seniority are provided taking into account an increase of 8.5 percent from January 1, 2027. This is the decision of the Ministry of Labor as the administrator of budget programs.

Experts assess the situation ambiguously. Economist Aidarkhan Kusainov has repeatedly paid attention to how the “average” pension is formed.

He emphasizes: “Conversation on the part of the state about some average funded payment is an absolute manipulation. Accumulative pension is the personal savings of citizens to whom the state has no relation. Someone has accumulated a lot, and the payment is 400 thousand, and someone has nothing. There is not, and cannot be, an “average.” The real average state pension was and remained at the level of about 157 thousand tenge.

Indeed, in August 2026, the average comprehensive pension, taking into account payments from the UAPF, jumped to almost 197 thousand tenge, but without the cumulative component, state payments remained noticeably modest.

Other experts are more optimistic about the increase.

So, the subsistence minimum itself raises questions. Its increase to 55,173 tenge looks solid on paper, but the structure of the consumer basket and calculation method are often criticized. Many pensioners say the real costs of food, utilities and medicine are significantly higher. This is especially noticeable in Almaty and Astana, where food and housing prices are significantly higher than the national average.

What will retirement look like in practice? Take a conditional pensioner with minimal experience. In 2026, it receives a minimum base 35,596 tenge plus a minimum solidary 69,049 tenge. That's just over 104,000. From January 1, 2027, its total payment from the budget will increase to 113,541 tenge. The increase will be about 9000 tenge. For a person with a long experience and a high solidarity pension, the increase will be more noticeable. If its joint part is now, say, 120 thousand, then after indexation by 8.5 percent it will grow by about 10 thousand, plus the base part will increase. In total, the increase may exceed 15-18 thousand tenge.

Separately, it is worth mentioning those who will retire in 2027. For them, the calculation will be made under the new rules. The maximum basic pension of 120 percent of the subsistence minimum will be available to those who have 35 years or more of experience in the pension system. It's an important incentive. The longer a person has worked and made contributions, the higher their state support will be.

However, experts warn that the 8.5 percent increase is not a solution to the problem of low pensions, but only a temporary measure.

The main problem of the Kazakh pension system is the low replacement rate. The International Labour Organization recommends a minimum of 40% of previous earnings. In Kazakhstan, the average figure is about 41 percent, but a significant part of pensioners is much lower. To really approach a decent level, you need to either sharply increase the basic pension or achieve growth of the funded part. And the funded part suffers from irregular contributions, self-employment and mass withdrawals for housing and treatment in previous years.

Indeed, many Kazakhstanis in recent years actively used the opportunity to withdraw part of pension savings. The amount of seizures was measured in trillions of tenge. This has helped to solve the housing problem for thousands of families, but also reduced future pensions. Now these people will receive less from the UAPF, and the state component becomes even more important for them.

Another nuance that experts pay attention to is the difference between the indexation of solidary and basic parts. The solidary pension will indeed grow a little faster due to the inflation plus two ratio, but only for those who are entitled to it. For people who retired already in the accumulative era and do not have a solidary component, growth will be strictly at the level of 8.5 percent plus an increase in the base part in proportion to the growth of the subsistence minimum.

What do pensioners say?

In informal conversations, many express restrained optimism. “Better than nothing. At least there will be a raise. But the prices don't stand still either. Especially drugs and communal, a typical reaction. Others are more critical: “Once again, they will say that pensions have increased by tens of percent, and penny will be added to your pocket. Until the real subsistence minimum is raised and the pension is tied to the average salary, there is little point.”.

The Ministry of Labor emphasizes that the increase is part of a long-term strategy. On the instructions of the President, the minimum basic pension was to gradually increase to 70 percent of the subsistence minimum, and the maximum - to 120 percent, and 2027 is just the final point of this stage. Further, according to forecasts, growth will continue, but at a more moderate pace after inflation and an increase in the subsistence minimum.

The average size of payments, according to preliminary estimates of the Ministry of Labor, in 2027 will amount to about 59 thousand tenge for basic pension and about 111-112 thousand for solidarity. The total average state pension will be about 170-171 thousand tenge. Taking into account funded payments, the average “full” pension will certainly be higher, but this figure depends on how many people have significant savings.

A separate issue is the sustainability of the entire system. Pension costs continue to rise and the number of contributors is growing more slowly. The demographic pressure is gradually increasing. Therefore, any talk about a more significant increase in pensions rests on the budget. This year, the Ministry of Finance is particularly hard on the position that indexation should correspond to the forecasted inflation rate, and not exceed it unless absolutely necessary.

However, for hundreds of thousands of retirees, January 1, 2027 will be the day when a little more money comes to the card. For some, it will be an opportunity to breathe a little more freely. For some, only a small relief amid the continued rise in prices. One thing is certain: the state fulfills its obligations to gradually increase the basic pension. This in itself is an important signal. Raising 2027 is a necessary but insufficient step. For a pension to truly be a guarantee of a decent old age, deeper changes are needed. Time will tell how much this increase will be noticeable in real life. But it is already clear that next year will be an important milestone in the pension policy of Kazakhstan. The borderline, after which the minimum state support will reach a new level, and the maximum basic pension will finally reach the coveted 120 percent of the subsistence minimum. For many, it will not be just the numbers in the budget, but real money in the account.