Violent elements

Nothing foreshadowed trouble

The tragedy occurred within the framework of the large-scale exercises “Khazar Korkany – 2026”. According to the plan, the exercises began on September 22 in the Kazakh sector of the Caspian Sea. The active phase was designed for about two weeks, during which more than 500 military personnel of the Navy, crews of warships, coastal units, as well as forces and means of the Coast Guard of the KNB Border Service in Mangystau region, the Air Defense Forces of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Kazakhstan were to take part in the exercises.

“The main purpose of the exercise is to improve the professional training of personnel, increase the level of combat readiness of crews and work out the interaction of forces and means when performing tasks for their intended purpose,” the Ministry of Defense of the Republic of Kazakhstan explained.

These exercises are not atypical, since large-scale exercises of the Navy and coastal services in the Caspian Sea with similar scenarios were regularly held in previous years. In particular, major maneuvers of the Caspian Flotilla and the Kazakh Navy took place in 2021, 2023 and 2024.

Technically, the beginning of the exercises went according to plan, on September 22, the start was given and the deployment of forces was carried out. All participants reached their starting positions. Under the leadership of the Commander-in-Chief of the Kazakh Navy Kanat Niyazbekov, the first stage began - joint maneuvering and working out the coherence of units. Further, on September 23 and 24, the training of combat missions was planned. According to the program of exercises these days, the personnel worked out a number of tasks on the sea and coast. Among them are anti-aircraft and anti-submarine-sabotage defense, the fight against asymmetric threats in bases and unprotected raids, the use of UAVs and methods of countering enemy drones, the organization of search and rescue support, etc.

According to official data, during the performance of one of the combat training tasks, the weather deteriorated sharply. A strong storm wind lifted, which left 17 servicemen in the storm away from the coastline. The exercises were urgently stopped, and a real rescue operation began. Three soldiers managed to get to land, the rest drowned. The search for children was conducted continuously around the clock. The search and rescue operation officially ended the next morning, September 25, 2026, at around 09:15, when the bodies of the last two missing soldiers were found. Later in the interior Ministry of the Republic called the main version of what happened.

On the fact of the death of servicemen during the exercises “Khazar korgany – 2026”, the military investigative unit of the Ministry of Internal Affairs is conducting a pre-trial investigation. It was established that on September 24, during exercises on the coast of the Caspian Sea, 43 kilometers from the city of Aktau, during the disembarkation of personnel from the Kaisar boat in unfavorable meteorological conditions, military personnel were carried into the sea, the press service of the ministry said.

History repeats itself

On the same day, September 25, it became known that five officials of the Ministry of Defense were detained in the case of the death of servicemen.

“On suspicion of committing criminal offences related to negligence in service and violation of navigation rules, which entailed serious consequences, responsible officials of the highest and senior command staff of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Kazakhstan were detained. Among the detainees is the chief of staff – the first deputy commander-in-chief of the Naval Forces of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Kazakhstan, two commanders of military units, as well as commanders of a company of marines and boats, the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Republic of Kazakhstan reported. By presidential decree, Dauren Kosanov was dismissed from the post of defense minister of Kazakhstan.

All detainees were recognized as suspects and placed in a temporary detention facility of the Aktau Police Department. The department added that the investigation examines the circumstances of decision-making in the organization and conduct of combat training tasks, compliance with security requirements, taking into account the hydrometeorological situation, the technical condition of the boat and the actions of officials responsible for the exercise and security.

The incident caused a great public outcry and revealed a number of serious problems. First of all, in the Ministry of Defense. After all, many still have fresh memories of another tragedy that also occurred on the shores of the Caspian Sea in September 2015.

Then in the framework of the international exercises “Center-2015” drowned four soldiers. The incident occurred during exercises during the practice of landing sea.

Six BTR-80s with 52 servicemen entered the Caspian Sea. In the same way, during the exercises, a strong wind began and a big wave began. Of the six armored vehicles, only two were able to reach the shore, the rest sank.

Further proceedings revealed gross safety violations and negligence. The exercises were conducted without preliminary exploration of the bottom relief, replete with sharp changes in depth and underwater currents. The court found guilty six people, including the former commander of the regional command “West” Colonel Murat Nugumanov. He and two other commanders were given two and a half years in prison for negligence in service. Another department commander was sentenced to a year and a half imprisonment in a colony-settlement, two defendants in the case were assigned suspended sentences.

And here the question arises – has the work been done on the safety of the water? If so, why did the episode in which large waves took our soldiers back again? While there is an investigation on a specific episode, the head of state Kassym-Jomart Tokayev gave an order and signed an order “On the Commission for a comprehensive inspection of the state of affairs in the Ministry of Defense of the Republic of Kazakhstan”. The commission should conduct an inspection, including in the field of financial and logistical support of military units.

Tragedy is also the subject of hype

Separately, it is worth mentioning the warnings of weather forecasters. On the evening of September 23, 2026, Kazhydromet announced a storm warning for the Mangystau region the next day, September 24. This is a confirmed fact. Whether he was taken into account during the exercises - this is now being investigated by the investigation. The question is different.

Here we will involuntarily recall another episode. On the night of July 22-23, 2015, a powerful mudflow descended on the outskirts of Almaty, in the village of Kamenka. No one was killed but more than 450 homes were damaged or damaged. Then many criticized the weather forecasters for the fact that there were no warnings about mudflow danger. As a result of criticism from both the authorities and hydrometeorologists, the response system in Almaty has been seriously revised. Kazhydromet switched to a daily preventive information format, which in theory was supposed to minimize the risks in the event of an emergency, but in fact led to the opposite effect. Daily warnings about storm and other hazards have become so excessive that many Kazakhstanis have simply stopped taking them seriously. It turned out as in the famous fable of Aesop “The boy who shouted: “Wolves-wolf!”.

It is certainly worth doing a lot of work here and coming to a certain benchmark, in which warnings come only when a dangerous natural phenomenon really approaches a particular city or even an area. Otherwise, such messages will remain in the “spam” section.

Another important aspect concerns political scientist Eduard Poletaev. Discussing the problem, the expert emphasizes that it is critical to pay sufficient attention to informing the population, which in such a situation can not be considered as a secondary function.

Indeed, if the official structures are silent or procrastinate with the answer, the information vacuum is instantly filled with rumors, conjectures and fakes, which only aggravates the situation. Unfortunately, some people try to attract an audience to their accounts.

As a result, the day after the end of the search work, on September 26, the Kazakhstan Center for Combating Disinformation recorded a series of information stuffing.

“There have been attempts to use the tragedy to gain views, promote accounts and spread unverified information. Messages with signs of coordination were also recorded, including from anonymous accounts and accounts of persons located outside Kazakhstan.

In particular, the archival video was issued as the “last call” of the deceased. In fact, the young man in the video is alive and is a cadet of a higher military educational institution. The recording was made earlier and is not related to the tragedy in Mangystau. Videos of the January events were also circulated on social media, accompanied by allegations of rallies allegedly taking place in Mangystau after the tragedy. The story about the delivery of “cargo 200” by taxi also turned out to be fake. Several other revelations have been made.

“Using a real video with a false date, place or circumstance is one of the common ways to create the illusion of an event happening where it really wasn’t.”.

However, a large amount of false information managed to spread widely on social networks. It is clear that such content caused public outrage, because not everyone knows how to work with information and filter out the flow of disinformation. While the investigation is ongoing, any allegations about the causes of the tragedy, the actions of specific officials or allegedly hidden circumstances cannot be considered versions unless confirmed by the competent authorities. It is obvious that it is necessary to carry out a tough reform in the Ministry of Defense of the Republic of Kazakhstan, as the President has already stated. We need concrete solutions that will improve people’s security and prevent a repeat of the tragedy in the future.