The expert estimated the growth potential in Norilsk Nickel shares at 15-30%
According to the expert, Norilsk Nickel shares can be supported by expectations of the lifting of sanctions, the AI boom, as well as improving the political environment
In the long term, Norilsk Nickel shares have a growth potential of 15-30% against the background of anticipation of the lifting of sanctions and the AI boom. This forecast was given by independent industrial expert Maxim Khudalov on the air of Radio RBC.
On the morning of October 10, RBC published an interview with Norilsk Nickel President Vladimir Potanin, in which he discussed the situation in the economy, the fairness of windfull tax, as well as approaches to monetary policy. Radio RBC called Maxim Khudalov and asked him to assess the potential of MMC shares.
Khudalov drew attention to the results of yesterday’s conversation between the presidents of Russia and the United States Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump. The leaders of the two countries reached an agreement on the supply of Russian diesel to world markets.
In the short term, perhaps the oil story we saw last night will give investors optimism that some of the sanctions will be lifted, so there may be a rebound. And while the history of the AI boom persists, the demand for copper and related assets will grow, so here we can count on the fact that Norilsk Nickel certainly has a certain growth potential of 15-30% during the year, the expert said.
If the political situation improves, the growth potential may be many times higher, Khudalov added.
Shares of Norilsk Nickel fell by almost 45% from the high of 2026 and at a minimum fell to е95.66 per share. However, in the wake of some improvement in sentiment on the Russian stock market, the company’s quotes also bounced back and now the securities are trading at чи115-116 per share.
The shares were supported by the weakening of the ruble, which began in September, and the first dividend recommendation in three years, already approved by shareholders.
The Board of Directors of Norilsk Nickel recommended a six-month dividend of ы1.85 per share. The yield at current prices is 1.6%.
The last time the company paid dividends for 9 months of 2023. Nornickel paid цию915.33 per share to a split of 100 to 1. After splitting, such a payment would be а9.15 per share.
Strong pressure on Norilsk Nickel shares at the end of September was exerted by the plans of the Ministry of Finance to introduce taxes on additional revenues of the mining and metallurgical sector: for solid minerals - 30%, for gold - 20%. Analysts of “Alfa-investments” then estimated that most of all in this scenario could pay “Norilsk Nickel” and “Polyus”.
The head of Norilsk Nickel, Vladimir Potanin, noted in an interview that such stories seriously violate the plans of companies, complicate investment planning. He also complained that tax stability, which was declared until 2030 as a result of a certain social contract between business and financial authorities, cannot be achieved.
“We understand the state tasks that we face as well as the officials. We just have a different vision of how to withdraw the necessary funds. We believe that they should be tied to profit, and not to any other indicators, said Potanin.
Later, the head of the Ministry of Finance Anton Siluanov said that the Agency found a compromise on the tax on superprofits with companies in the mining and metallurgical sector.
We did a very good job, met with businesses, and found a compromise on the super-income tax. They made it so that those who have spikes (that is, a large size of a potential payment for one calendar year) smoothed them out there, Siluanov said.
Analysts of “T-Investments” against the background of the initiative of the Ministry of Finance to tax the superprofits of metallurgists lowered the target for Norilsk Nickel shares to м121 per share with the recommendation to “keep”.
Norilsk Nickel is a diversified mining and metallurgical company, the world’s largest palladium producer. The company also produces silver, gold, iridium, ruthenium, selenium, nickel, platinum, cobalt, copper and other products. The main production units of the Norilsk Nickel group of companies are located in Russia in the Norilsk industrial district, on the Kola Peninsula and in the Trans-Baikal Territory.
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