X5 shares up more than 9% in no news: why

Shares of the Russian retailer X5 (X5), which manages retail chains Perekrestok, Pyaterochka and Chizhik, have risen in price by 9.12% since the beginning of October. At its peak on Tuesday, October 6, their price reached е2040. Papers for several days are in the leaders of the growth index of the Moscow Exchange.

Retailer quotes grow in the absence of news. “RBC Investments” learned from analysts, what may be associated with growth and what, in their opinion, the prospects for the shares in the future.

Why X5 Stocks Are Rising

Analysts interviewed by RBC Investments agreed that the growth of X5 shares in recent years is associated with a rebound after a strong fall. According to estimates of the analyst of “BCS World of Investments” Andrei Sharov, since the beginning of 2026, the paper has become cheaper by more than 40%. Now the losses since the beginning of the year are slightly less, but still significant - about 33%.

Another reason for the growth of quotations, according to experts, is that investors begin to play back the statements for the nine months of 2026 and expectations of interim dividends in advance.

On October 16, X5 will publish operating results for the third quarter and nine months of 2026, and IFRS financial results for the same period will be released on October 29.

In November, the board of directors of the retailer will give a recommendation on dividends.

In addition, at the end of September, the annual X5 Dialog conference was held, at which positive strategic benchmarks were named, said Laura Kuznetsova, managing expert of the PSB Analytical and Expertise Center. For example, Pyaterochka plans to bring its market share to about 14%, Chizhik continues to expand its range and strengthen its own brands. But the company did not give fundamentally new financial information or a signal on dividends, the expert noted.

“Moreover, the management simultaneously reported an increase in logistics and marketing costs, so the conference itself was rather neutral for assessing the business,” Kuznetsova said.

According to Freedom Global analyst Vladimir Chernov, it would be wrong to explain the movement of quotations only by the performances of management on the X5 Dialog, since purchases intensified even before the conference.

What dividends will pay X5: analysts’ forecasts

Freedom Global expects a total (intermediate and final) X5 dividend of то250-350 per share for 2026. “This is a forecast estimate, and it assumes an improvement in cash flow in the second half of the year and control of capital expenditures,” said Vladimir Chernov.

In his opinion, we should not expect a repeat of the previous large payments. The possibility of further payments will depend more on the current business results, the analyst said.

The expected total dividend yield of X5 shares, if you buy them at a price around the current м2000, will be 12.5-17.5% before tax, according to Freedom Global. The broker assumes that both payments for 2026 will go to investors in the next 12 months.

BCS World of Investments expects that the next dividend payment will be ,175, and the total dividend for 2026 is about ,350.

Lead analyst at Digital Broker Ivan Efanov predicts dividends of about ы190 per share in December 2026 or January 2027 with a yield of 9.5%.

The PSB believes that the interim dividend of X5 will be approximately ,150-200, and the final payment will be about ,170-190. Starting from a share price of about ва2000, dividends in the coming year can give about 16-19.5% of the potential return.

Analysts’ Forecasts for X5 Stocks

Freedom Global: the recommendation is to hold, the target price for the end of 2026 is ной2300-2500 with a favorable market situation and improved reporting.

Ricom-Trust: the target price for the end of 2026 is ом2200-2400, if the overall background on the Russian stock market does not deteriorate sharply.

PSB: the target price for the end of 2026 is 2200-2300, for 12 months - 3200 in conditions of further business growth, normalization of margins and maintaining high payments to shareholders.

BCS World of Investments: the target price for 12 months is ая2400, the view is positive.

"Digital broker": target price for 12 months - ая3072, the view - "positive".

What will happen to X5 shares in 2027

Freedom Global has suggested that high volatility in X5 securities is possible in early 2027, including a dividend gap, if shareholders approve an interim payment by then.

Senior analyst of the Rikom-Trust investment company Valeria Popova believes that in the first half of 2027, stocks may again exceed the mark of ,2400. Two key factors will contribute to this:

reduction of the key rate; general recovery of the russian stock market.

Reducing the key rate will reduce the interest costs of the company, as well as create favorable conditions for the revaluation of securities with high dividend yield, the expert explained. In parallel, the rise of the entire market will strengthen the positive dynamics and help X5 shares gain a foothold at higher levels, says Valeria Popova.

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