The Central Bank raised the official dollar rate above 85 for the first time since September

The Central Bank of Russia set the official exchange rate of the US dollar on Wednesday, October 7, at the level of 85.7116, the euro - 96.0313, the yuan - 12.7984. This is reported on the website of the regulator. The previous time above the .85 mark, the official dollar exchange rate rose almost a month ago - on September 10.

On Tuesday, October 6, the Central Bank established the following exchange rates: dollar - 84.9309, euro - 95.3349, yuan - 12.6491.

Thus, the dollar rose by 78.07 kopecks, the euro by 69.64 kopecks, and the yuan by 14.93 kopecks.

The official rates of the Central Bank of the dollar and euros are used for settlements on contracts on the futures market of the Moscow Exchange, including futures contracts for the dollar / ruble (Si), euro / ruble (Eu), dollar / yuan (UCNY), euro / dollar (ED), dollar / tenge (UKZT), perpetual futures for the dollar / ruble pair (USDRUBF), euro / ruble (EURRUBF), futures for the RTS index (RTS and RTSM) and a number of other instruments.

At the auction on Tuesday, October 6, the ruble showed multidirectional dynamics against foreign currencies. At the same time, during the session, the dollar exchange rate in the forex market exceeded ку86 for the first time in a month. The ruble lost ground on news about the growth of daily purchases of foreign currency by the Ministry of Finance in October and early November more than five times.

By 17:38 MSK, the yuan exchange rate (CNY / RUB TOM) on the Moscow Exchange decreased by 0.1% compared to the level to the close of trading of the previous day and amounted to 12.75.

Tool USDRUB TOM by 17:00 MSK rose by 0.4%, reaching .86.15.

The USDRUB TOM instrument reflects transactions with the dollar/ruble currency pair. Payments are made the next day in rubles. The time of concluding transactions is from 9:00 to 19:00 MSK.

Trading of the currency pair USDRUB TOM was held on the Moscow Exchange until June 2024. Officially, trading in the dollar was suspended after the Moscow Exchange was included in the US sanctions list. The dollar continued to trade on the over-the-counter market, where trading operations are conducted directly between participants, without the mediation of the exchange. Deals on the USDRUB TOM instrument resumed in mid-February 2026.

What now affects the ruble exchange rate

The ruble exchange rate is now determined exclusively by the situational balance of supply and demand in the foreign exchange market, economist Yegor Susin said. The current balance largely depends on export prices that existed on the world market a couple of months ago, and is also determined by the operations of the Ministry of Finance under the budget rule, import flows at the moment, including in some part capital flows that remain lower.

The impact on the ruble exchange rate has increased demand for currency from importers. The expert noted that imports have grown, both in general more steadily and seasonally, since towards the end of the year, importers traditionally conduct pre-New Year purchases.

At the same time, the operations of the Ministry of Finance to purchase currency under the budget rule will take place taking into account oil prices in the previous month, and export revenue will come to exporters a little later, Egor Susin reminded. According to him, the proceeds from the sale of exports at higher prices in September-October on average will come to companies in two months. By the end of October, this may affect the balance of supply and demand in the market.

The Russian foreign exchange market is also affected by long Chinese holidays - from October 1 to 7, the anniversary of the creation of the state is celebrated in China and banks operate in a limited mode. As a result, actual transactions are not carried out in the yuan, the expert notes.

What will happen to the ruble exchange rate next: expert opinions

Pressure on the ruble in the short term may persist against the background of an increase in daily purchases of currency by the Ministry of Finance in the market in October, as well as taking into account the implementation of delayed demand by importers after the end of the “golden week” in China, the PSB believes. As a result, the value of the yuan may approach the peaks of September - in the area of 13. At the same time, the preservation of a favorable foreign trade environment, which ensures the growth of export revenues, is likely to keep the ruble from a more noticeable weakening, says Denis Popov, managing expert of the PSB Analytical and Expertise Center.

In addition, in October, Russian exporters can increase foreign currency sales, since at the end of the month they will have to spend large sums on the payment of taxes, first of all, the quarterly tax on additional income from the extraction of hydrocarbons (NDT), Alexei Golovinov, the chief analyst for financial markets at Vector Capital, told the Markets.Morning program on the RBC channel. As a result, the supply of currency will increase, and this may support the ruble. The currency overhang factor at the end of the month may lead to a slight strengthening of the Russian currency.

Chief economist of BCS World of Investments Ilya Fedorov admitted that after the start of increased purchases of currency by the Ministry of Finance, the dollar rate may rise to levels of 86-87, but this is likely to be local highs. The stabilization of the ruble in the middle of the month will help the sale of currency by exporters, who will need to prepare for the payment of large taxes. As a result, we can expect the return of the dollar to the levels of the end of September - 80-85, followed by a further movement to the lower border, believe in BCS World of Investments.

The news is supplemented