Index of Moscow Exchange, shares of banks and LUKOIL: digest

Mobiri Index

The index of the Moscow Exchange (IMOEX) following the results of the main trading session on Tuesday, October 6, increased by 0.38%, to 2328.50 points. The IMOEX2 index, which shows the dynamics of the market including in the evening and morning sessions, ended the day in positive by 0.16%, rising to 2325.31 points.

The market slowed down the movement upwards after the active growth of previous trading - during the day the index went into the red, but won back losses in the second half of trading.

According to Mikhail Seltzer, an expert at BCS World of Investments, after the local market rally, it takes time to remove technical short-term overboughtness. According to him, further opens the space for maneuvering the stock index for peaks in early autumn (2380 points) and up to highs in mid-summer (2400 points). The baseline scenario for October is in the works and is still perfectly executed, and the most volatile securities chosen by active traders show outperforming dynamics.

The analyst also adds that the geopolitical process is slowly but developing: there are talks about trilateral technical negotiations, the media are exaggerating the topic of a multibillion-dollar deal between the United States and Russia in the field of oil, and the expansion of NATO to the east, according to the American administration, is now not discussed. Against this background, the risk premium is slightly reduced, the securities are growing, and traders even shrug off threats of new EU sanctions and steps towards escalation in the Baltic States.

In addition, the monetary factor is now on pause, Zeltzer draws attention. The Central Bank has suspended the cycle of reducing the key rate, and, possibly, in October it will remain at the level of 14%, by the end of the year – on the basis of 13.75% and a maximum of 13.5%. Today will also be released statistics on weekly inflation and the market may become more volatile, he believes.

On the morning of Wednesday, October 7, IMOEX2, according to 7:50 MSK, grows by 0.38% compared to the close of trading on Tuesday, to 2334.29 points.

LUKOIL shares

LUKOIL’s shares updated their six-month maximum at the morning session on October 7. At 7:58 GMT, the quotes of the oilman added 1.14%, to у5633.5 per paper. This is the highest level since April 7, 2026.

Quotes support dividend expectations. The company may soon announce dividends for the first half of 2026 with yields above 9%, analysts at BCS World of Investments note.

In the first half of the year, the company improved financial results, with a jump in free cash flow allowing for high interim dividends at the end of 2026. We expect that their yield will exceed 10%, and the total payments in the next year can provide about 16-18%, - forecasts investment analyst of Alfa-Investments Alexey Devyatov.

Bank shares

The finance sector on Tuesday became the leaders in the growth index of the Moscow Exchange. Thus, VTB quotes at the end of trading added 2.28%, T-Technologies — 1.05%, Sovcombank — 4.06%, ICD — 9.47%. Ordinary shares of Sberbank rose by 0.16%.

Bank stocks rose for two consecutive days.

Analysts surveyed by RBC Investments identify both general reasons for the growth of the sector and individual drivers for each of the banks. Thus, the leading analyst of Freedom Global Natalia Milchakova reminded that in mid-October will begin to release financial results of banks for September under RAS, and at the end of the month is expected to publish reports on IFRS for the third quarter.

If we talk separately about each of the banks, we can single out such drivers:

VTB: Expectations of closing the deal with RWB in October According to Olga Naidenova, senior analyst at Sinar Investment Bank, investors expect a reduction in strategic uncertainty; T-Technologies: disclosure of the parameters of the transaction to buy Point Bank; Sovcombank: an increase in the buyback from 2 billion to 3 billion per quarter; ICD: consolidation in its structure of the Far Eastern Bank.

Other important developments

Rosstat will publish an estimate of the consumer price index for the week from September 29 to October 5. The Ministry of Finance will hold an auction for the placement of OFZ 26252. USA: weekly crude oil reserves according to EIA - 17:30 GMT.