Futures on the key bet: how to make money on the decisions of the Central Bank

In September 2026, futures trading on the key rate index began on the Moscow Stock Exchange. The new tool allows you to trade expectations regarding the decision of the Bank of Russia at a specific meeting. Private investors can use it to implement their forecasts, and companies can use it to manage interest income and expenses. However, it is not enough to correctly predict the direction of the rate movement: the financial result depends, among other things, on what expectations are already reflected in the contract price.

The contract complements the line of interest-bearing instruments of the exchange, which includes futures for the RUONIA index. The main feature of the contract is the direct connection of its price with the decision of the regulator. The quotation can be compared with your forecast of the key rate, and the expiration date - with the calendar of meetings.

The tool is available to a wide range of clients, including unqualified private investors after undergoing testing with a broker.

Features of the contract and its parameters

The underlying asset of the futures is the key rate index of the Moscow Exchange, calculated on the basis of official data of the Bank of Russia. The key rate is one of the most significant benchmarks for the country's economy. The conditions for bank loans and deposits, bond yields and the cost of financing for business depend on its level.

The index value numerically coincides with the key rate: at a rate of 14%, the index is 14 points.

Futures is traded under the code KEYRATE, its price is indicated in points, as well as the value of the index. The futures price formed during trading reflects the expectations of participants regarding the rate level at the expiration date of the contract. For example, at the current rate of 14%, a quote of 13.50 points indicates that the market is laying its decline. With the release of data on inflation, economic activity and statements of the regulator, expectations change, and with them the price of the contract changes. The quote is not a guaranteed forecast of the future decision.

The minimum transaction volume is one contract. The estimated volume of the contract is equal to the index value multiplied by 1000: with an index of 14 it is 14 thousand. To assess profit or loss under the contract, such an indicator as the monetary sensitivity of the contract to price changes is important. The minimum price step is 0.01 points and corresponds to .10 per contract. That is, a price movement of 0.01 points corresponds to a result of у10 per contract, a movement of 0.25 points corresponds to a result of у250, and a price movement of one point will bring у1000 profit or loss depending on the direction of the position. For several contracts, the result is multiplied by their number.

Opening a position and execution of the contract

Before the transaction, you must familiarize yourself with the specification of the contract: check the underlying asset, quotation units, the cost of the minimum price step, the date of completion of trading and the order of execution.

Key rate index futures are executed on the days of scheduled meetings of the Bank of Russia. Bidding in the corresponding series ends at 19:00 GMT, and the execution price is equal to the index value calculated at the rate announced by the regulator on the day of the meeting. Thus, the final result of the contract is tied to the decision of a particular meeting. The contract is settlement, that is, the fulfillment of the obligations of the parties under the contract is carried out by monetary settlements.

An unscheduled meeting of the Bank of Russia does not lead to early execution: futures will continue to apply until the set date. However, a new decision and a change in participants’ expectations for future meetings can significantly affect its price.

At the same time, two series of contracts are available in the auction: currently with execution on October 23 and December 18, 2026. The current list of terms in circulation should be checked on the website of the exchange or at the broker.

How to trade a contract based on rate expectations

When concluding a transaction, the investor must compare the expected rate level with the contract quote. If his expectations are higher than the current futures price, the investor should buy the contract; if the expected level is lower than the contract price, then you can earn by selling the contract. Therefore, even the expectation of a reduction in the current rate can be the basis for buying futures in the event that at the time of the transaction, the market has a larger reduction in the contract price than the investor expects.

Let's take a conventional example.

The key rate is 14%, December futures is trading at 13.50 points, and the investor expects the rate to be reduced to 13.75% following the December meeting. His forecast is above the market quote, so he buys a contract at 13.5.

If the execution rate is 13.75%, the total profit will be equal to ая250 per contract: (13.75 – 13.50) × 1000.

If the regulator reduces the rate to 13%, the loss will be у500: (13.00 – 13.50) × 1000.

In both cases, the rate decreased, but the result of the transaction was different. Taxes and commissions are not included in the example.

It is not necessary to wait for execution: a position can be closed with a counter transaction. Then the result is determined by the difference between opening and closing prices, taking into account the direction of the position. The buyer receives profit when the quotation increases, the seller - when it decreases. Therefore, before opening a position, it is necessary to determine the horizon of the trading idea and the circumstances under which it will need to be revised.

How Companies Can Manage Interest Rate Risk

For business, futures can be used to hedge interest rate risks. For example, a company with a loan tied to a key rate, while waiting for rates to rise, can buy futures. If the rate on execution is higher than the purchase price, a positive result under the contract will compensate for part of the increased interest costs on the loan. In anticipation of falling rates, the sale of a contract can be used to protect income on floating rate assets: the profit on the sold contract with a reduction in the rate can compensate for the reduction in interest income.

The number of contracts is determined based on the amount of liabilities or assets exposed to interest risk, as well as on the frequency of interest payments and the sensitivity of cash flows to changes in the rate.

For the accuracy of the hedging, the dates of the revision of the rate on the hedged instrument are also important. If the instrument involves repeated revision of the rate during its lifetime, then it may be necessary to select positions in contracts with multiple expiration dates for a more accurate hedge. If the loan is tied to another percentage indicator, then there is an additional risk of discrepancy between its dynamics and the key rate.

The shoulder mechanism and its risks

To open a position, it is necessary to make a guarantee - means that ensure the fulfillment of obligations under the contract. Usually it is only a fraction of the value of the position under the contract, while profit and loss depend on the change in the value of the entire position. This is how financial leverage arises: the result relative to the funds deposited can be significantly greater than the percentage change in the quote.

A conditional example.

At a price of 14 points, the volume of one contract is .14 thousand. If the guarantee is о5 thousand, then the leverage is 2.8. A price movement of one point can give а1000 profit or loss – that is, 20% of the security deposited.

The amount of security in the example is conditional. Actual requirements must be checked with the broker before the transaction. During the term of the contract, warranty requirements may change, including with increasing volatility. At the same time, the possible loss on futures is not limited to the amount of initial collateral.

Open positions are re-evaluated daily. A positive or negative result is reflected through variational margin - cash calculations based on the results of changes in the price of the contract during one trading day. If the market moves against the position, additional funds may be needed to maintain the position before the contract is expired.

Even the correct forecast of the final rate does not exclude intermediate losses and the need to replenish the brokerage account. In case of lack of funds, the broker can forcibly close the position. To prevent this from happening, it is important to provide in advance a liquidity reserve and the possibility of prompt replenishment of the account.

What to Consider When Choosing Position Size

Position size should be determined on the basis of the allowable loss and available stock. For example, an unfavorable move of one point means a loss of .1000 per contract or .100,000 per hundred contracts. But the chosen scenario does not set the limit of possible losses: an unexpected decision of the regulator or an unscheduled meeting can cause a sharper change in quotations. The reserve should take into account both the risk of a sharp change in the price of the contract and the risk of an increase in warranty.

Before submitting an application, it is important to evaluate the available buying and selling prices, the volume of counter orders and commissions, which may differ from broker to broker. For a large position, it is especially important whether it can be opened or closed without a significant deviation from the current market price. Predetermined exit conditions help to act consistently, but do not guarantee execution at the desired quote in a sharp market movement.

Quotation of futures as a benchmark of expectations regarding the decision of the Bank of Russia

As the liquidity of the contract increases, the quotations of its different series may become an additional benchmark of expectations according to the decisions of the Bank of Russia. Comparing them, participants will be able to assess what level of rate the market lays for the upcoming meetings. The informativeness of such a signal will depend on the activity of bidding and the breadth of the circle of participants.