The Central Bank lowered the official dollar exchange rate on October 13 below 84

The Central Bank of Russia set the official exchange rate of the US dollar on Tuesday, October 13, at 83.9153, the euro - 94.0355, the yuan - 12.5360. This is reported on the website of the regulator.

On the weekend and Monday, October 12, the Central Bank established the following exchange rates: dollar - 84.9048, euro - 94.9745, yuan - 12.6739.

Thus, the dollar fell by 98.95 kopecks, the euro by 93.90 kopecks, and the yuan by 13.79 kopecks.

The official rates of the Central Bank of the dollar and euros are used for settlements on contracts on the futures market of the Moscow Exchange, including futures contracts for the dollar / ruble (Si), euro / ruble (Eu), dollar / yuan (UCNY), euro / dollar (ED), dollar / tenge (UKZT), perpetual futures for the dollar / ruble pair (USDRUBF), euro / ruble (EURRUBF), futures for the RTS index (RTS and RTSM) and a number of other instruments.

At the auction on Monday, October 12, the ruble strengthened against foreign currencies. By 17:41 MSK, the yuan exchange rate (CNY / RUB TOM) on the Moscow Exchange decreased by 1.3% compared to the close of trading on Friday and amounted to 12.52.

Tool USDRUB TOM at 17:40 GMT fell by 1.2%, reaching ше84.35.

The USDRUB TOM instrument reflects transactions with the dollar/ruble currency pair. Payments are made the next day in rubles. The time of concluding transactions is from 9:00 to 19:00 MSK.

Trading of the currency pair USDRUB TOM was held on the Moscow Exchange until June 2024. Officially, trading in the dollar was suspended after the Moscow Exchange was included in the US sanctions list. The dollar continued to trade on the over-the-counter market, where trading operations are conducted directly between participants, without the mediation of the exchange. Deals on the USDRUB TOM instrument resumed in mid-February 2026.

What now affects the ruble exchange rate

As noted by the chief analyst of the Bank “Zenit” Vladimir Evstifeev, the ruble quickly stabilized after falling amid news of a multiple increase in foreign currency purchases from the Ministry of Finance in October. According to him, the decision means that the growth of external revenue of exporters took place, while foreign currency purchases under the budget rule take more than half of the expected inflow from the market. Thus, this factor will not be able to weaken the ruble, it will rather lead to its stabilization in the current range.

In the period from October 7 to November 6, the Ministry of Finance will buy currency and gold under the budget rule for a total of у 279.42 billion. The daily volume of purchases will thus amount to Е12.7 billion. For comparison: from September 7 to October 6, the Ministry of Finance under the budget rule bought currency for у2.5 billion per day. That is, daily purchases have increased fivefold.

In addition, the Central Bank simultaneously daily until the end of the year sells currency for у0.58 billion. Thus, net purchases by the monetary authorities will amount to 12.12 billion a day against 1.92 billion a month earlier (an increase of 6.3 times).

The analyst also adds that inflation data at the beginning of October do not have expectations of a further reduction in the size of the key rate. This is a positive factor for the ruble and ruble savings.

At the same time, according to Maxim Tymoshenko, Director of the Financial Markets Department at Russian Standard Bank, the ruble continues to receive support from oil prices. At the same time, according to him, the news about the reduction of purchases of Russian raw materials by Indian oil companies against the background of a sharp rise in prices for Urals may add to the market tension.

What will happen to the ruble exchange rate next: expert opinions

Bogdan Zvarych, head of analysis of banking and financial markets at PSB, sees opportunities for strengthening the ruble. He believes that the gradual growth of foreign exchange supply from exporters due to the receipt of oil revenues in September will support the national currency and will contribute to the retreat of the yuan/ruble pair to the lower end of the target range ,12.5-13.

Moreover, according to Zvarich, on the horizon until the end of the month, you can expect an additional offer from exporters against the background of increased contributions to the budget. According to his estimate, the volume of tax payments by oil companies in October may amount to about ь1 trillion due to improved conditions and payment of quarterly income tax (tax on additional income from hydrocarbon production), which is twice the same figure for September. This could lead to the consolidation of the Chinese currency below 12.5 and a retreat to the September lows.

BCS World Investments expert Mikhail Seltzer expects that the dollar may go under ,85, the euro will move further from ,95, and the yuan will temporarily lose sight of the technical level of ,12.7. However, according to the analyst, exchange rates are unlikely to fall much. A significant increase in purchases of the Ministry of Finance relative to September will not allow this.

As for the telephone conversations between US leader Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, the analyst emphasizes that the deal to supply Russian diesel to the world market reduces the risk premium in Russian financial assets: ruble instruments – stocks and bonds – jumped sharply, and the ruble and foreign exchange rates have yet to play back.

The news is supplemented