Sberbank predicts a decline in the price of Brent oil to $68 by the end of 2027
According to experts, oil will remain expensive until the Strait of Hormuz is closed
Sberbank analysts predict that the average price of Brent oil in the fourth quarter of 2027 will be $68 per barrel. This is stated in the material “New forecasts for inflation, commodity markets and budget”, which was prepared by the Center for Macroeconomic Research, the Department of Strategy and Development, the analytical hub and the Treasury of the Bank.
According to experts, the average price of Brent oil will be:
in the fourth quarter of 2026 - at $91 per barrel; in the first quarter of 2027 - at $81 per barrel; in the second half of 2027 - about $67 per barrel.
Also, Sber predicts the average price of Brent in 2026 at $93.2, and in 2027 - $71.9.
According to analysts, the price will decrease when oil production in the Persian Gulf resumes. At the same time, in 2027, supply will grow by 9 million barrels. per day, mainly due to the recovery of OPEC production, and demand by 2.4 million barrels. per day. Most, according to experts, it will increase in Asia, excluding China.
In 2026, Sber predicts a reduction in oil supply by 5.5 million barrels per day, mainly due to a decrease in OPEC production.
According to experts, oil demand will fall by 1.7 million barrels per day for the first time since 2020. Consumption in China will decline the most.
On Monday, October 12, the price of Brent oil rose above $107 per barrel for the first time in almost a month. On October 11 and 12, Yemeni Houthis launched a series of strikes on the airport in the Saudi capital Riyadh.
On Tuesday, October 13, the cost of December futures on Brent on the London exchange ICE Futures, according to 20:32 GMT, decreased by 0.89%, to $105.71 per barrel. Natalia Milchakova, a leading analyst at Freedom Global, explained the negative dynamics by the expectations of growth in the supply of oil and oil products from Russia, as well as the OPEC report, in which the forecast for oil demand in 2026 was more than halved - from 380 thousand barrels. per day to 180 thousand barrels. per day.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised its forecast for the average oil price in the world in 2026 to $95.74 from $67.74, in 2027 to $87.39. The fund noted that the supply of petroleum products fell by 20% due to damage to refineries in the Middle East and Russia.
Freedom Global analyst Vladimir Chernov kept the forecast for the price of Brent oil until the end of 2026 at $95-110 and an average of $80-95 for 2027 when recovering supplies. The expert admitted the growth of oil prices to $120-140 with a serious deterioration in the export situation, but he considers such a scenario unlikely and expects a gradual decline in prices.
Read "RBC Investments" in "Max".
