Scientists have estimated the risk of powerful flares on the Sun after the record

The risks of powerful solar flares have decreased compared to the previous day, the Solar Astronomy Laboratory of IKI RAS reported. According to scientists, the active area has begun to lose strength, although formally the probability of outbreaks of the upper class X remains high.

“There is a slight decrease in the rate of formation and power of solar flares.” The active area appears to be exhaling, the report said. On November 9, scientists recorded about 20 outbreaks. The decrease in their number, they called not sharp, but tangible.

According to preliminary estimates of experts, the group of sunspots began to gradually collapse. The maximum power of the flares at the time of the report was in the area of M2 — about five times below the threshold of class X.

“There are still risks of major outbreaks that could make a difference, but they are significantly lower today than they were yesterday.” Fully risks can be removed in about two days, — noted in the laboratory.

The active center crossed the Sun-Earth line and shifts to the western edge of the solar disk. From Earth, it will be visible until November 15, but the ability to influence the planet, according to scientists, will remain a maximum of one or two days.

The geomagnetic environment is also stabilizing: The Earth is gradually moving out of the coronal hole. The speed of the solar wind over the past day has decreased, although it remains high - about 700 km / s. The probability of new geomagnetic disturbances, scientists estimated as low.

The decrease in activity was preceded by a series of numerous outbreaks. On November 7, 29 events were recorded on the Sun, which was a repetition of the record of the XXI century when determining the day according to Moscow time. Previously, the same number of outbreaks recorded on May 5, 2022 and December 10, 2024.

A feature of the November record was that all outbreaks occurred in one group of spots - No. 4566. At the same time, the scientists specified that the result depends on the time zone: 32 outbreaks were recorded on May 5, 2022.

The high frequency of events continued after the record day. There were 28 outbreaks on November 8 and ten more in the first eight hours of November 9. Then the laboratory warned of possible disturbances in the magnetic field of the Earth in the second half of the week in the event of large emissions. Group 4566 was located in the center of the visible solar disk, that is, it was aimed at Earth.

At the same time, the planet was affected by the flow of plasma from the coronal hole. On November 8, a magnetic storm of the level of Kp5+ began on Earth. Previously, scientists expected that the complete stabilization of the magnetic field will occur no earlier than November 13-14. Now, the laboratory has reported that geomagnetic indices, according to the forecast, will not return to the yellow and red zones, although they may remain slightly elevated for another day or two.