Climate swing: weather forecaster Vinstein revealed the scenario of winter for Russia

Autumn confidently enters into its rights, which means it is time to look to the future and prepare for winter. Forecaster Ilya Vinstein from the project “Synoptics” told what to expect from the cold weather in Russia.

Long-term predictions are based on computer models that estimate the overall circulation of the atmosphere. The key role here is played by oscillations – powerful climatic triggers.

The main indicator is Arctic oscillation (AO). When it works in the plus, the polar vortex reliably keeps the frosts in the north, and in Russia the heat reigns. However, current calculations show otherwise. There is high pressure over Canada and Greenland. This is a sign of the negative phase of AO: the polar vortex weakens, and the icy air begins to break into the middle latitudes.

Adds the intrigue and influence of El Niño, which operates through the atmospheric pattern of TNH. A negative scenario is expected this year, which increases the risk of severe frosts in the north and northwest of the country.

For the European part of Russia and the Urals, winter will be like a roller coaster. Heat waves will be rapidly replaced by Arctic invasions. As a result, the average temperature for the season will be about normal, but the season itself will be remembered by frequent snowstorms, sharp jumps in thermometers and heavy precipitation, writes Weather Mail.