“Swallows of winter”: weather forecasters presented a detailed weather forecast for the second half of November in the Ryazan region

Scientists of Ryazan State University named after S.A. Yesenin presented the weather forecast for the second half of November. According to experts, the region is entering a period of high dynamics of atmospheric vortices. Cyclical repetition of weather scenarios will be accompanied by a gradual increase in Arctic influences.

Last week, meteorologists warned that on Saturday, November 14, an active atmospheric front with rain and wind will pass through the region. The forecast was justified, but adjusted for 12-14 hours. Experts noted that this error is typical for medium-term models.

The first swallow of winter and temperature swings

In the coming days, the Ryazan region will be covered by a powerful anticyclone filled with Arctic air. On November 12, it was off the coast of Greenland, on the morning of November 13 in Scotland, and by the evening of November 14 its center shifted to Romania. After a day and a half, the vortex will reach the Volgograd region, where it will temporarily stabilize and begin to dictate the weather in Central Russia.

Before the final cold snap, the region will be under the influence of a powerful cyclone centered over Finland and the White Sea.

November 15 (Sunday): A warm and then cold sector of the cyclone will pass through the area. The front separating them will bring heavy rainfall. In Kasimov, Moscow and Ivanovo, up to 20 mm of rain per day is expected, in Ryazan - half as much.

November 16 (Monday): With the final entry into the rights of the Greenland anticyclone, frosts will come to the region.

November 17 (Tuesday): It is expected to be the coldest day of next week. Clouds will decrease, precipitation will stop, and the average daily temperature will become negative, fluctuating from +0.5 to -2.5 degrees.

November 18 (Wednesday): Anticyclone will begin to go east, the temperature will return to slightly positive values (+1 ... + 4), the sky will again be covered with clouds.

Synoptic cycles and snow

Further development of events will be subject to the law of "natural synoptic periods" - cycles known since the beginning of the XX century.

November 19-20: Cyclonic fronts will bring rain to the western regions (Tulu, Kaluga, Smolensk), and Ryazan will get only their remnants.

November 21 (Saturday): A new wave of bad weather can bring wet snow. The probability of precipitation with snow is higher in Penza, Saransk and Arzamas, . Residents of Ryazan should also be prepared for the change of rain to a solid phase. The front will pass, as a week earlier, with strong winds and short-term warming to +7 degrees.

November 22 (Sunday): It is expected to cool to a steady minus (at night to -6, in the afternoon about -1). It will provide the "second winter swallow" - anticyclone centered over the Perm Pre-Urals. Ryazan will be on its warm western periphery.

November 25 (Wednesday): At low temperatures, snow may fall.

“Around 25.11 we may have a certain amount of snow falling at a negative temperature – this snow will persist for several days (but it is unlikely to last until spring),” the forecast of scientists of the Russian State University says.

In general, November weather in the region will be two 5-6-day cycles: a sharp warming with wind and rain will be replaced by 2-3-day dominance of the Arctic air and night frosts.