The population is declining: how in the Astrakhan region want to increase the birth rate

In the Astrakhan region calculated the demographic trajectory until 2030. In recent years, the region has lost tens of thousands of inhabitants, the number of births since the peak of the mid-2010s has decreased markedly, and women have become less likely to give birth at a young age. At the same time, the birth rate is changing: the share of third, fourth and subsequent children is growing. These trends formed the basis of the program, designed for 2026-2030.

From a million inhabitants to 946,000

The demographic picture of recent years for the Astrakhan region is not easy. As of January 1, 2025, 946,580 people lived in the region. Since the beginning of 2017, the population has decreased by 72.4 thousand people, or 7.1%. In 2017, the population was about 1.019 million people.

The decline affected both cities and the countryside. At the beginning of 2025, the urban population was 604,326 people, rural, 341,722 people. Women in the region still outnumber men.

The birth rate has also changed. In the early 2000s and first half of 2010s, the number of births increased. In 2000, 10,027 children were born in the Astrakhan region, in 2014, 15,171 children were already born. Then the trend reversed. In 2017, 12,270 children were born, in 2018, 11,781, in 2019, 11,005, in 2020, 10 911, in 2021, 10,709, in 2022, 9662, in 2023, 9265. In 2024, the number of births was 9,199.

The overall fertility rate has also declined. If in 2018, the region had 11.6 births per thousand inhabitants, then in 2022 the figure fell to 9.8. In 2023, it remained at the same level, and in 2024 it was 9.9.

At the same time, the indicators of the Astrakhan region during 2016-2024 remained above the average values in the Southern Federal District. In 2024, 9.9 births per thousand population were registered in the region, on average in the Southern Federal District, 8.1, in Russia, 8.7.

Families gave birth differently

One of the most noticeable changes is related not only to the number of children, but also to the order of their birth.

In 2021, the first children accounted for 34.95% of the total number of births in the Astrakhan region, the second, 37.93%, third, 18.45%, fourth, 5.53%, fifth and subsequent, 3.15%.

By 2024, the share of first children decreased to 31.71%, the second to 34.1%. At the same time, the share of third children increased to 22.29%, fourth, to 7.56%, fifth and subsequent, to 4.25%.

As a result, third and subsequent children accounted for 27.13% of all births in 2021, and in 2024 their share reached 34.1%. The total fertility rate of third and subsequent children in the Astrakhan region in 2024 was 0.539 against an average of 0.376 in Russia.

Another change concerns the age of mothers. The main contribution to the birth rate continues to make women from 20 to 34 years. In 2023, this age group accounted for 69.5% of births. In cities, the figure was 69%, in rural areas, 70.6%.

However, the proportion of births for women under 24 years of age is decreasing, and in the age groups from 25 to 44 years, by contrast, is increasing. At the same time, age-related fertility rates are declining. Among women aged 25-29, the figure decreased from 120 births per thousand women in 2016 to 100.7 in 2023. In the 30-34-year-old group, it dropped from 84.3 to 69.2 over the same period.

The average age of the mother at birth in the region in recent years has remained about 27.5-27.7 years. When the first child appeared in 2024, it was 24.2 years, the second child, 28.2 years, the third, 31.2 years, the fourth, 32.1 years. For the fifth and subsequent children, the figure was 32.9 years.

Bet on second and third children

A separate reserve is associated with families in which there are already children. Among women of fertile age, 23.27% have two children, 7.78%, three, 1.6%, four, another 0.72%, five or more.

At the same time, women from 30 to 39 years are the most numerous group of reproductive age. Therefore, one of the directions is to support families at the birth of the second and third child.

Another reserve is associated with the age group from 25 to 34 years. In 2024, there were 10,850 women aged 25-29 and 13,819 women aged 30 to 34 in the Astrakhan region. For this category, it is envisaged to create conditions that allow combining professional activity and motherhood.

Special attention is paid to large families. Since 2025, the project “Multiple Family (Astrakhan Region)” has been operating in the region. It has its own trajectory of the total fertility rate of third and subsequent children. In 2025, the indicator is determined at the level of 0.561, in 2026, 0.58, in 2027, 0.598, in 2028, 0.617, in 2029, 0.637, and in 2030, 0.657.

What support is already in place

The region has a set of payments and benefits for families with children. For large families with income below the subsistence minimum, a monthly allowance for housing and utilities is provided in the amount of 850.95 rubles for each family member. The annual payment for clothes and school supplies is 3683.75 rubles for each student, monthly payment for travel, 561.95 rubles, for food, 900.97 rubles for each student.

Regional family capital in the amount of 93,639.20 rubles is provided for the birth of the third or subsequent child until December 31, 2017 inclusive.

Regardless of income, large families are provided with free medicines for children under six years old, vouchers to sanatorium-resort organizations no more than once a year, compensation for part of the cost of secondary vocational education in the amount of no more than 18,294.73 rubles per academic year, as well as the opportunity to visit state museums, parks and exhibitions for free.

There is also a parental fee for kindergarten. Its size depends on the number of children: compensation is provided for 20%, 50% and 70% of the fee.

Some families with children aged 17 to 18, families with children with disabilities and student families receive a separate benefit. From January 1, 2026, the payment for a child aged 17 to 18 years is 762.74 rubles, for a child in a student family, 1525.46 rubles, the same amount is provided for a disabled child. Payments are provided in accordance with the established conditions of need. For the calculation from January 1, 2026, the subsistence minimum per capita in the amount of 18,371 rubles is used.

Among the areas of further work, the improvement of housing conditions for large children was indicated. In 2024, the share of large families that improved living conditions was 3.25%.

Reproductive health as part of demographics

A separate block is related to medical care and reproductive health. Among the identified problems was the availability of in vitro fertilization. In the Astrakhan region, the indicator is 2.26 IVF cycles per thousand women of fertile age with an average Russian level of 2.8.

The system of measures includes medical examinations aimed at identifying diseases of the reproductive system. In particular, studies are provided for the diagnosis of pathologies of the cervix and prostate gland. Some of these measures are implemented within the framework of the territorial program of state guarantees of free medical care.

The demographic program as a whole unites the work of health, social sphere, education, employment services and housing and communal complex. The deadline for its implementation is set from 2026 to 2030.

The total fertility rate shows how many children, on average, one woman would give birth during the reproductive period, while maintaining the existing fertility rate at each age.

In the Astrakhan region, this figure in 2016 was 1.94 children per woman. In 2017, it decreased to 1.73, in 2018, to 1.71, in 2019, to 1.67. In 2020, the indicator again rose to 1.73, in 2021, to 1.74, after which in 2022 it decreased to 1.63, in 2023 it was 1.64, and in 2024, about 1.6.

In rural areas, the ratio has been higher than in urban areas for a number of years. In 2024, it was 1.62 in rural areas and 1.60 in urban areas.

How many children should be born by 2030

The goal of the program is to increase the total fertility rate to 1.6 by 2030 and to 1.8 by 2036. At the same time, an annual increase in the birth rate of third and subsequent children is envisaged.

For each year, a benchmark is set for the number of newborns. For 2026, it is 8953 children, for 2027, 8939, for 2028, 8994. Then it is expected to increase: to 9102 births in 2029 and to 9212 in 2030.

These values are calculated against the background of long-term population decline and changes in the age structure. The number of women of fertile age decreased by 9.3% compared to 2015.

At the same time, a noticeable shift has already taken place within the birth rate structure itself: the first and second children occupy a smaller share than a few years ago, and the third, fourth and subsequent children occupy a larger share. It is the growth in the number of higher births and the implementation of the reproductive plans of women from 25 to 34 years old that are considered as the main reserves for achieving the established targets by 2030.