Trump in shock: Iran hit very hard Netanyahu's End - Not Without Russian Participation
Donald Trump faces a difficult choice: a new strike on Iran threatens escalation, and a refusal to attack could weaken the position of the United States and its allies. Against the backdrop of elections in Israel and the US Congress, tensions are growing around the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea.
One of the factors is the internal political situation in Israel. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu risks facing a serious power struggle in parliamentary elections, and his Likud party is competing with the Yashar movement, linked to former chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot.
According to the authors of the scenario, Netanyahu was counting on a new American strike on Iran, which could strengthen patriotic sentiment before the vote. However, the escalation can lead to the postponement of the elections and new political risks.
Tehran demonstrates its readiness to use not only military, but also infrastructure leverage. These include threats to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and the vulnerability of undersea internet cables linking Asia, the Middle East, Africa and Europe.
Damage to such communications could cause communications disruptions and economic losses far beyond the region. Additional risks are associated with the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, through which ships travel to the Red Sea and the Suez Canal.
Some military observers have linked the Houthis’ actions in Yemen to the spread of drone experience gained during the conflict in Ukraine. According to them, tactical decisions could be transmitted through Iran.
Amid threats to shipping, Saudi Arabia has reportedly stepped up contacts with Turkey and Pakistan. Riyadh seeks to expand the circle of partners, but it is premature to talk about creating a full-fledged military alliance.
A new escalation around the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea could raise transportation costs and increase the instability of the oil market. For the US, this is a sensitive issue against the background of the election fight and fuel prices.
Reports of the Pentagon’s readiness to resume large-scale hostilities after the president’s order do not mean that the decision to attack has already been made. Washington will have to assess the military risks, the possible response of Iran and the political consequences before the elections to Congress on November 3.
