The Central Bank estimated the impact of the parameters of the new budget on the key rate

The announced parameters of the budget policy as a whole fit into the prerequisites that the Central Bank laid in its July macro forecast. This was stated by Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank of Russia Alexei Zabotkin on the sidelines of the “Alpha Summit” in St. Petersburg. His words are reported by the correspondent of RBC Investments.

In his opinion, the new parameters of the budget for 2027 and the planning period 2028-2029 will most likely not have a significant impact on the October forecast of the Central Bank and the further trajectory of the key rate. The next meeting of the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia at the key rate is scheduled for October 23. The regulator will also publish a medium-term forecast.

Following the results of the September meeting, the Board of Directors did not give any direct signals about further changes in the rate. Further decision will be dictated by all incoming data, and they are not limited to the budgetary factor. Taking into account the fact that the parameters of the budget policy were laid in the July forecast, the announced budget parameters will most likely not have a strong impact on the forecast in October, the deputy chairman of the Central Bank said.

This year, two more meetings of the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia at the key rate will be held – October and December.

At a meeting in September, the Bank of Russia for the first time since last spring decided to keep the key rate at 14%. Prior to that, the regulator has consistently eased monetary conditions for ten consecutive meetings. As a result, from a historical maximum of 21%, it fell to 14%.

The Russian government approved the draft federal budget for 2027 and the planning period 2028-2029. In 2027, revenues are planned at the level of .43.3 trillion, expenses - .48.8 trillion. Among the priorities of the budget, Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin called the fulfillment of social obligations, ensuring defense and security, helping the participants of the military operation and their loved ones, as well as achieving national goals. According to the government forecast, GDP in 2027 will grow by 1.4%, and by 2029 the growth rate will accelerate to 2.4%.

According to the latest survey of analysts, which the Central Bank conducted in September, the key rate on average for 2026 is projected at 14.5% per annum. This forecast assumes that for the remainder of 2026, the average key rate will be 13.7% per annum. In 2027, the average rate for the year, according to analysts, is expected at 12.4% per annum (+0.2 percentage points), in 2028 - 10% per annum. The forecast for 2029 is 8.6% per annum.