SberCIB allowed the strengthening of the ruble to ля75 by the end of the year

Analysts SberCIB Investment Research in the optimistic scenario do not exclude that the ruble by the end of 2026 can significantly strengthen, reaching the level of и75 per dollar. This is stated in the review “Strategic satellite: in a protective positioning mode” dated October 2 (there is RBC Investments), which contains a macro forecast for the fourth quarter of 2026 and 2027.

According to experts, in the fourth quarter, the key driver for the ruble will remain the dynamics of the supply of currency, that is, revenues from exports along with the operations of the Central Bank under the budget rule and mirroring expenses from the NWF.

In the period from September 7 to October 6, the Ministry of Finance plans to purchase currency and gold under the budget rule in the amount of у55.6 billion. Thus, the daily volume of purchases will be .2.5 billion.

For comparison: from August 7 to September 4, the ministry bought currency worth 6.5 billion per day under the budget rule. That is, daily purchases will be reduced by 2.6 times.

In addition, the Central Bank simultaneously daily until the end of the year sells currency for у0.58 billion. Net purchases by the monetary authorities will amount to х1.92 billion per day against х5.92 billion during the previous month.

Lower export scenario

With the price of Russian oil around $90 in October-November, Russian merchandise exports could rise to about $48 billion, analysts say. This is 10% more than in May-July. According to their estimates, currency purchases under the budget rule will compensate for less than half of this growth, including because the increase in oil and gas revenues of the budget will hamper the growth of payments on the damper from the budget to oil refiners. If such growth in Russian exports proves to be sustainable, analysts assume the ruble exchange rate is around 80 per dollar and 12 per yuan.

Optimistic scenario (the scenario of escalation of the conflict in the Middle East)

In the optimistic scenario, experts believe that the ruble could strengthen to ,75 per dollar and ,11.2 per yuan, if, in addition, there is an influx of foreign exchange liquidity and three-month yuan rates fall to 2% (at the beginning of the year).

The baseline scenario

As part of the baseline scenario, experts assume that commodity prices will decline as negotiations resume following the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East.

In addition, the Ministry of Finance confirmed that it plans to reduce the cut-off price in the budget rule from $59 this year to $50 next year from next year, which, according to analysts, all other things being equal, will increase currency purchases under the budget rule by у120 billion per month. Therefore, in the baseline scenario, SberCIB experts maintain the forecast of ов85 per dollar at the end of the year and expect the ruble to weaken to ов90 next year.

Earlier, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said that the price of cutting off oil at $50 per barrel is discussed by the Cabinet. “This figure is under discussion. More precisely, of course, we will say after all the figures proposed and reviewed by the federal executive authorities have been approved at a government meeting. But strategically, yes, we plan to reduce the cutoff price in order to ensure a more stable budget, its occupancy, the filling of the National Welfare Fund, Novak said.

According to the Deputy Prime Minister, from the point of view of planning, this decision is correct and reduces the risks of price volatility in world markets. In late May, the plans of the authorities to reduce the cut-off price under the budget rule to $50 per barrel were reported by sources of RBC.

Scenarios of economic development for the fourth quarter of 2026 and 2027

Based on the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, SberCIB analysts raised the forecast for oil prices in the fourth quarter to $95 per barrel of Brent and $72 per barrel of Urals. They plan to continue the confrontation at least until the end of 2026 and identify three scenarios.

Basic scenario. The situation will be resolved in the fourth quarter of 2026, as a result of which world oil prices will normalize in 2027. Urals will cost $68 per barrel in 2026 and $55 per barrel in 2027. In this scenario, experts consider the fuel crisis in Russia temporary, with the fourth quarter expected to improve the situation. Exports of petroleum products will recover next year. The average annual ruble exchange rate will be 80 per dollar in 2026 and 87 in 2027.

In the Middle East, “No peace, no war.” This is a scenario that assumes high oil prices will be maintained at $71 per barrel of Urals in 2026 and $73 in 2027. The domestic conditions for Russia are the same as in the baseline scenario. However, a sharp increase in additional oil and gas budget revenues allows to significantly increase investment from the NWF already in 2027. For the ruble, this scenario means strengthening in the fourth quarter of 2026 and in 2027.

A scenario of escalation of the conflict with Ukraine. Oil prices are the same as in the baseline scenario, that is, an average of $68 per barrel in 2026 and $55 per barrel in 2027. Strikes on Russian infrastructure and logistics continue. Problems in the domestic fuel market persist, and the export of petroleum products remains banned for the whole of 2027, experts characterize this scenario. This scenario implies a weaker ruble than in the baseline scenario.

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