Sberbank assesses potential contribution of GenAI to Russian GDP

The introduction of generative AI technologies (capable of generating new content in response to prompts) can add from 2.8 to 9.8% to Russian GDP by 2030, depending on the speed of implementation, according to a study by CMI Sber (RBC).

The range of assessments is divided into two regimes. In the first, AI automates individual tasks without restructuring processes, while productivity growth remains below 1.5% per year. In the second, enterprises are rebuilding processes and industry chains, and productivity growth exceeds 1.5% per year, said Alexander Isakov, head of CMI Sbera. The lower limit of 2.8% is closer to the first regime, the upper limit of 9.8% is closer to the second.

The Russian model of GenAI development differs from the models of the United States and China, the study notes. AI in Russia is developing, as in China, on domestic capital and within large ecosystems, but with a smaller domestic market. The scale of the stock market in the United States and China, intensive support for state capital and venture investments, is provided by the largest companies in Russia.

Reaching the upper bound of scenarios will require a shift from the use of AI by individual employees to the restructuring of enterprise processes. This requires four conditions at the same time — computing power, electricity, data and personnel, said Isakov.

Why other experts interviewed by RBC gravitate to the lower limit of Sber's estimates - read in RBC's subscription.