The IEA recorded the transition from a shortage of oil in the world to its excess

The global oil market in the fourth quarter of 2026 will return to a surplus of supply, follows from the November report of the International Energy Agency (IEA). Supplies from the Gulf countries are recovering faster than demand. In October, supply exceeded consumption for the first time since the start of the war in Iran. In 2027, the agency expects the excess to increase.

In October, global oil supply increased by 2.3 million barrels per day compared to September, to 105.4 million. Since August, it has increased by 5.3 million barrels per day.

At the same time, global oil demand by the end of 2026 will decrease by 2.7 million barrels per day compared to 2025, to 102.3 million, the IEA expects. Consumption is constrained by disruptions in the supply of petroleum products and liquefied hydrocarbon gases from the Persian Gulf countries, as well as high fuel prices.

In 2027, demand will grow by 2 million barrels per day, while supply - by 6.6 million, to 108.1 million. Almost 80% of the increase in consumption will provide raw materials for petrochemicals – liquefied hydrocarbon gases, ethane and naphtha. Demand for automotive fuel will grow slightly: its recovery will be restrained by high prices, the spread of electric vehicles and improved fuel efficiency of cars.

The agency tracked global oil reserves in October increased by 52 million barrels — the first time since June. At the same time, the volume of oil on board tankers increased by 86 million barrels, and stocks in onshore storages continued to decline and remained at a minimum since at least 2016.

Amid the recovery in supply, the price of North Sea Dated crude oil fell by 32%, from a peak of $136 per barrel in early October to $93 at the time of preparation of the report. However, the IEA warned that ongoing attacks on ships threaten the safety of transportation and could hamper the recovery of supplies.