The Central Bank raised the official dollar exchange rate by almost 1.5

The Central Bank of Russia set the official exchange rate of the US dollar on Tuesday, October 6, at the level of 84.9309, the euro - 95.3349, the yuan - 12.6491. This is reported on the website of the regulator.

On the weekend and Monday, October 5, the Central Bank established the following exchange rates: dollar - 83.2454, euro - 94.5252, yuan - 12.4028.

Thus, the dollar rose by 1,447, the euro by 1,0148, and the yuan by 21.63 kopecks.

The official rates of the Central Bank of the dollar and euros are used for settlements on contracts on the futures market of the Moscow Exchange, including futures contracts for the dollar / ruble (Si), euro / ruble (Eu), dollar / yuan (UCNY), euro / dollar (ED), dollar / tenge (UKZT), perpetual futures for the dollar / ruble pair (USDRUBF), euro / ruble (EURRUBF), futures for the RTS index (RTS and RTSM) and a number of other instruments.

At auction on Monday, October 5, the ruble weakened against foreign currencies. During trading, the Russian currency fell sharply after the news that in October-early November net purchases from the monetary authorities will increase more than five times and will amount to 12.12 billion a day against 2.5 billion a month earlier. Operations will be conducted between October 7, 2026 and November 6, 2026.

By 17:01 MSK, the yuan exchange rate (CNY/RUB TOM) on the Mosbirzh increased by 1.7% compared to the level before the close of trading on Friday and amounted to 12.706.

Tool USDRUB TOM by 17:09 MSK rose by 1.6%, reaching .85.79.

The USDRUB TOM instrument reflects transactions with the dollar/ruble currency pair. Payments are made the next day in rubles. The time of concluding transactions is from 9:00 to 19:00 MSK.

Trading of the currency pair USDRUB TOM was held on the Moscow Exchange until June 2024. Officially, trading in the dollar was suspended after the Moscow Exchange was included in the US sanctions list. The dollar continued to trade on the over-the-counter market, where trading operations are conducted directly between participants, without the mediation of the exchange. Deals on the USDRUB TOM instrument resumed in mid-February 2026.

What now affects the ruble exchange rate

The increase in purchases of currency and gold by the Ministry of Finance was a negative signal for the Russian currency, said analyst of Digital Broker Alexander Dudnikov. All other things being equal, a higher volume of currency transactions in the market in October creates additional demand for foreign currency assets and may increase pressure on the ruble. At the same time, the budget rule itself does not determine the direction of the exchange rate: the dynamics of the ruble against foreign currencies continues to depend on export revenues, oil prices, interest rates and the overall balance of demand and supply of currency.

The PSB noted that long weekends in China also influence the dynamics of the foreign exchange market, which contributes to the low activity of traders in the Russian foreign exchange market. The publication of the parameters of operations under the budget rule put pressure on the ruble, but a more significant decrease in it is constrained by the preservation of favorable conditions in the energy market, says Bogdan Zvarich, manager for analysis of banking and financial markets at PSB. The price of Brent oil continues to hold above $100 per barrel.

What will happen to the ruble exchange rate next: expert opinions

Head of the Center for Market Strategies of Gazprombank Egor Susin believes that due to the increase in foreign currency purchases by the Ministry of Finance, the average monthly exchange rate of the dollar to the ruble may grow in October by -2-3, although the dynamics will greatly depend on the activity of currency sales in the market by Russian exporters.

The expert recalled that the proceeds from the sale of oil come to exporters with large lags. In October, they will be delayed to receive revenue from sales at high oil prices in the summer, which were still much lower than in September, he said. On the other hand, in October, Russian companies will have to pay a quarterly tax (tax on additional income from hydrocarbon production) and under this they will have to increase sales of foreign exchange earnings. At the same time, by November, exporters will already receive revenues from the sale of oil at higher prices - $ 80-100 per barrel.

Chief economist of “T-Investments” Sofia Donets also believes that in October the ruble may weaken its position against the background of an increase in the purchase of currency by the Ministry of Finance. She noted that the volume of transactions with the currency coincided with expectations, being closer to the upper limit of the forecast of T-Investments. Given that the volume of other operations of the Bank of Russia in the framework of mirroring operations of the NWF remains minimal, the total volume of currency purchases will be the maximum since the beginning of 2022. This will be a factor of a weaker ruble in October, Sophia Donets said.

Veles Capital believes that the fall of the ruble is unlikely to be long. The ruble reacted to the announcement of new parameters for operations under the budget rule by some weakening, but this reaction may be short-term and will largely be played back by the end of Monday - the first half of Tuesday, says Yuri Kravchenko, head of the analysis of banks and money market at Veles Capital.

“The increase in foreign currency purchases largely reflects the expected higher oil and gas revenues, so in the medium term, nothing fundamentally changes for the ruble: support from high oil prices and counter demand for currency under the budget rule should largely neutralize each other,” said Yuri Kravchenko. However, differences in lags between the dynamics of oil prices, the receipt of export revenues, its sale in the domestic market and budget operations can lead to the fact that the short-term balance of demand and supply of currency in the market will significantly deviate in one direction or another.

Chief economist of BCS World of Investments Ilya Fedorov also does not expect the collapse of the ruble exchange rate in October. He said this in the program “Markets” on the TV channel RBC. He warned that the exchange rate of the ruble against foreign currencies this month will be quite volatile. Already this week, increased purchases of currency will begin, and at the beginning of the month there may be quite noticeable drawdowns in the ruble exchange rate, Ilya Fedorov said. As a result, in the near future, the dollar may rise to the levels of 86-87, but these are likely to be local highs. At the same time, exporters will have to prepare for the payment of large taxes in October. In the middle of the month, counter sales of currency from exporters may begin on the market, which will lead to the stabilization of the ruble and a return to the levels of the end of September - м80-85, followed by a further movement to the lower border, BCS World Investments believes.

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