Russia and the United States made a deal on diesel. What will happen to oil stocks

Shares of Russian oil and gas companies jumped in price after US President Donald Trump announced an agreement with Russian President Vladimir Putin on the supply of Russian diesel to the American and world markets.

On October 9, Trump announced that Moscow would immediately send 300,000 tons of diesel, then another 500,000 tons during November and 1 million tons immediately thereafter. Taking into account the production capabilities of Russian refineries, another 3 million tons of diesel fuel will be exported in the shortest possible time, the US president said.

On the same day, Putin confirmed Russia’s readiness to supply diesel to the US and world markets, and the Office of Foreign Assets Control of the US Treasury (OFAC) published a general license, allowing the export of Russian diesel until April 7, 2027.

The next day, the government partially lifted the ban on diesel exports from Russia and allowed 500,000 tons of diesel fuel to be sent to the world market.

Since July 2026 in Russia there was a ban on the export of diesel to stabilize the situation on the fuel market. Initially, the restriction was set until the end of the month, but later its effect was extended until the end of October.

On October 15, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak admitted that the first deliveries of Russian diesel fuel to the United States could be implemented in at least two to three weeks.

RBC Investments asked experts how the diesel deal will affect prices in the United States, what impact it will have on the quotes of Russian oil workers and what investors should do with the shares of the oil sector right now.

How much does diesel cost in the US and will Russian supplies help

According to the press Secretary of the President of Russia Dmitry Peskov, the supply of Russian diesel fuel to world markets will help partially stabilize energy markets.

So, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the price of diesel in the United States on October 12 was $ 6,179 per gallon ($ 1.63 per liter). Dmitry Vishnevsky, an analyst with Digital Broker, notes that this is about 70% higher than the levels that were in the United States before the aggravation of relations with Iran. The record of $6.51 per gallon was recorded on September 22.

Analyst of the financial group “Finam” Sergey Kaufman notes that 500 thousand tons, which are planned to be delivered at the first stage, correspond to approximately daily consumption of diesel in the United States. According to the expert, these supplies will not significantly affect prices in the United States. Kirill Bakhtin, the head of the center for analysis of Russian shares at BCS World of Investments, shares the same point of view and recalls that in the United States the total demand is about 180 million tons of diesel per year.

Meanwhile, Novak previously admitted that by the end of the year Russia could increase fuel exports to 3-3.5 million tons per month, to the previous level of supplies. This will allow the country to occupy more than 10% of the global diesel market.

For our economy, this is a positive signal in general, associated with an increase in refining volumes at oil refineries, an increase in production volumes, additional taxes to the budget, and the possibility of budgeting social spending. These are opportunities for investment, including, Novak said.

If Russian diesel exports reach more than 3 million tons per month, which was observed before the strikes on the refinery, it could soften the deficit both in the United States and in the world, Kaufman said.

Freedom Global analyst Vladimir Chernov, on the contrary, believes that Russian supplies will help to increase supply volumes and restrain prices, but the expert does not expect a rapid and sharp decrease in the cost of fuel at American gas stations. “The effect depends on the regularity of deliveries and how much of the Russian diesel will actually go to the United States, since the agreements provide for exports to other countries,” he added.

What stocks could benefit from the US-Russia diesel deal

The material is purely informative and does not contain individual investment recommendations.

Bakhtin of BCS World of Investments believes that the deal itself is not such a significant event for oil companies, since in the near future Russia, according to him, would probably resume diesel exports. “The deal is positive for general market sentiment, showing the presence of contacts between the leadership of Russia and the United States,” he said.

Kaufman of Finam also believes that for Russian oil workers, the key aspect is not so much the fact of diesel deliveries to the United States as the position of Trump, who insists on stopping attacks on Russian refineries. If the efforts of the American President are successful, it could within a couple of months to restore the volume of oil refining in Russia to 90-95% of the norm, says Kaufman.

Now crack spreads per diesel (the difference between the cost of crude oil and diesel) in the United States are at an abnormally high level – about $100 per barrel. This means that at the level of revenue under the current situation, it is more profitable to sell diesel by almost $100 per barrel than crude oil, the Finama expert emphasizes.

Vishnevsky of Digital Broker believes that the main beneficiaries of the diesel deal between Russia and the United States will be oil companies that are more focused on exporting petroleum products: Rosneft, LUKOIL and Gazprom Neft.

“For them, the transaction means additional export revenue. At the same time, it does not guarantee constant supplies: only 300 thousand tons have been announced at once, 500 thousand tons in November and another 1 million tons in the future, the expert recalls.

Chernov considers Tatneft to be the potential beneficiaries of the diesel deal with the United States, in addition to Rosneft, LUKOIL and Gazprom Neft, since all these companies have their own oil refining. However, the distribution of contracts between the companies and supply prices have not yet been disclosed, so it is impossible to reliably estimate their additional profit.

October 16, the special representative of the President of Russia for investment and economic cooperation with foreign countries, the head of RDIF Kirill Dmitriev said that the U.S. Department of energy has already identified certain Russian companies that will work on the supply of Russian diesel. But their list has not yet been disclosed.

To understand the scale, Chernov cites a conditional calculation: the sale of 1 million tons at $ 1,000 per ton gives $ 1 billion in revenue, from which it is still necessary to deduct the cost of raw materials, processing, transportation and other costs.

“But this is only an example of calculation, not a known price of the transaction, and in addition, if the fuel is simply redirected from another market, the additional earnings will be only the difference in the profitability of supplies,” Chernov said.

What shares to choose for an investor

In BCS, LUKOIL shares are now considered the favorite in the oil segment.

But the oil company’s shares have risen more than 40 percent since late August amid a strong report and a recommendation for interim dividends, Finam’s Kaufman said. In his opinion, the sector has less dividend, but noticeably lagging behind the growth of quotations shares: Rosneft and Surgutneftegaz:

for Rosneft, the development of the Vostok Oil project is an additional positive factor. The target price for Rosneft shares in Finam is м460.8 (as of 23:00 GMT on October 16, the paper was trading at 378 rubles); ordinary shares of Surgutneftegaz are allocated anomalous by historical standards discount to the currency “bubble”. In terms of per share, the “cub” now, according to Finam estimates, is about е140 at the price of an ordinary share е16.5. The target price for ordinary shares of Surgutneftegaz is м24.6.

As part of the diesel deal, Chernov allocates shares of LUKOIL, Tatneft and Rosneft. LUKOIL has developed oil refining, Tatneft has TANECO (Tatarstan oil refining complex), and Rosneft can get a noticeable effect due to the scale of the business, the expert explains.

However, the potential participation in deliveries does not mean that it is profitable to buy shares at any price, so when choosing, you should also take into account the debt burden, cash flow and dividend prospects, Chernov emphasizes.

Practical advice for investors

Vladimir Chernov, Freedom Global

“Against the background of the news on the diesel deal, I would rather keep positions already open, and make new purchases gradually, after assessing the price of specific stocks.” I would not increase the share of the entire oil and gas sector just because of the diesel deal, since the main benefit is received by producers of oil products, and for gas companies the direct effect is limited.

It makes sense to reduce positions if the share of the sector in the portfolio is already too large or the growth of quotations significantly outpaced the improvement in financial results. So far, there is no reason to automatically raise profit and dividend forecasts for all oil workers.”.

Sergei Kaufman, "Finam"

In recent months, the market has largely played back the existing positive in the most dividend shares of oil companies, which most benefited from increased refining margins (LUKOIL, Gazprom Neft, Tatneft). In such a situation, we consider it reasonable to at least partially shift to lagging quotations, but also promising shares in the sector - Surgutneftegaz, Rosneft, Gazprom.

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