In “Finam” allowed the growth of gold prices to $5600 per ounce

Analysts “Finam” in an optimistic scenario predict that gold prices in the fourth quarter may rise to the level of $ 5600 per ounce. Thus, compared to the current price, the quotes of the precious metal can grow by more than 30%. This is stated in the October review on macroeconomics for the fourth quarter “Yields of debt markets returned to the beginning of the millennium” (there is RBC Investments).

In the baseline scenario, Finam predicts that the price of the precious metal in the fourth quarter may try to break the mark of $4700 per ounce, and then rise to the level of $5,000 by the end of 2026 or in the first quarter of 2027. In an alternative scenario, experts suggest that the price of gold may continue to consolidate near its average, at around $4,300 per ounce. However, the most likely scenario is currently considered optimistic, with prices rising to $5,600 per ounce, analysts said.

In the third quarter, the price of gold rose more than 4%, partially offsetting the decline seen over the previous three-month period. However, the correctional wave, which began in March 2026, has not yet received a more significant continuation. The average price of gold for the last quarter was at $4,263.9 per ounce, while since the beginning of this year it was at $4,543 per ounce.

In the fourth quarter, the price of gold may be affected by the exchange rate of the US national currency, as well as increased geopolitical tensions, Finam reported. The dollar (DXY index) is in a long-term bullish trend. The strengthening of the dollar usually negatively affects gold, the price of which is set in dollars. At the same time, the demand for gold from the world’s central banks will continue, experts say. The company believes that the increase in demand can also contribute to the lower price of the precious metal.

The tense situation in the Middle East remains a key factor. Finam believes that the likelihood of a final de-escalation and a peace agreement is still low, and the escalation of the situation can occur at any time. High oil prices increase the chances of stagflation and, accordingly, increase the risks of tightening monetary policy, which puts pressure on the price of the precious metal. In particular, the market is already laying a single increase in the key rate of the US Federal Reserve in the fourth quarter. Consequently, a backlash in gold prices is only possible if the Fed chooses a more significant rate move.

High interest rates reduce the investment attractiveness of gold because the metal does not generate interest income. At the same time, rising oil prices are pushing inflation up, as a result of which central banks can raise rates.

At the same time, experts pointed out that in addition to the conflict in the Middle East, there are risks of conflicts in other regions. “We believe that in the long term, the likelihood of tensions in other regions is quite high. One of the consequences of this will be increased demand for precious metals from global regulators, analysts say.

In 2025, there was a rally in the gold market, which continued in early 2026. The maximum price for gold was recorded at auction on January 29 - $ 5,626.8 per ounce. However, then prices began to adjust and in June fell below $4,000 per ounce. Since then, gold has recovered some of the losses.

The Ministry of Finance positively assess the prospects of the gold market. Earlier, Deputy Finance Minister Alexei Moiseev admitted that over the next 12 months, gold prices could reach $5,000 per ounce. He sees no other scenario for gold than rising prices, given the monetary policy situation in a number of Western countries.