What will happen to the key rate at the meeting of the Central Bank on October 23

At the last meeting on September 11, the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia decided to keep the key rate unchanged at 14% per annum. The decision of the Central Bank was the first pause after ten consecutive easing of monetary policy.

At the same time, the regulator retained a neutral signal, refraining from specifying the direction of its further steps at the key rate.

RBC Investments studied the situation on the market before the meeting on the key rate, scheduled for October 23, and also asked experts to give a forecast of what decision the Bank of Russia will take and indicate factors that are expected to influence it.

The situation on the market before the meeting on October 23 and the rhetoric of the Bank of Russia

In a press release following the September key rate meeting, the Bank of Russia stressed that price pressure has increased significantly in recent months. According to the Central Bank, stable inflation accelerated to 5-6%, one of the reasons for which was the rise in prices for motor fuel.

"The Bank of Russia will make further decisions on the key rate depending on the dynamics of inflation and inflation expectations, as well as on the assessment of risks from domestic and external conditions," the regulator said.

According to Rosstat, from October 29 to 5, inflation in Russia amounted to 0.96% after 0.12% a week earlier. Since the beginning of 2026, consumer prices have increased by 5.94%.

The Ministry of Economic Development reported that in annual terms, inflation as of October 5 was at the level of 7.17% compared to 6.26% on September 28.

In addition, the regulator pointed to high inflation expectations and the need to wait for the clarification of budget parameters. Elvira Nabiullina stressed that the rate reduction “cannot be automatic” and requires certain prerequisites.

In the summary, the Central Bank even more clearly recorded a cautious approach: the discussion participants considered it justified not to give a signal about the direction of the next steps. At the same time, the Central Bank confirmed that it sees the possibility of resuming the decline in inflation after the exhaustion of temporary factors, including the disposal of production capacities. But to reduce the rate, the regulator needs confidence in the sustainability of this process.

After introducing the parameters of the three-year budget to the State Duma, Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank Alexei Zabotkin noted that the new data will most likely not have a significant impact on the October forecast of the Central Bank and the further trajectory of the key rate. According to him, they were already laid in the July forecast.

What decision will be taken by the Central Bank at the meeting on October 23: expert opinions

The main scenario at the October meeting of the Bank of Russia, experts believe that the key rate will remain at 14%. At the same time, some analysts allow the resumption of the cycle of rate cuts in December.

Chief analyst of the center of investment analytics of IC Rosgosstrakh Life Vladimir Malinovskiy expects that the Central Bank will again leave the key rate unchanged at the level of 14%.

According to him, the submitted draft state budget for the coming years was close to the forecast, which earlier the Bank of Russia laid in its decision on the key rate. Therefore, a new revision of the trajectory of changing the “key” against the background of rising budget expenditures and the deficit is likely not yet necessary.

At the same time, an increase in fuel prices, which apparently became the main reason for the increase in inflation expectations of the population and the observed inflation in September, as well as a slight acceleration in corporate lending, can hinder the easing of monetary policy, Malinowski said.

Inflation expectations of the population of Russia in September 2026 increased immediately by 0.5 percentage points, to 14.2%, follows from the survey infom, commissioned by the Bank of Russia.

The indicator again moved to growth after a significant decline last month and approached the result of July 2026, when inflation expectations rose to a maximum since March 2022 and amounted to 14.7%.

The estimate of the annual inflation observed by the population in September also increased and amounted to 15.1 against 14.3% a month earlier.

The head of the macroeconomic analysis department of Finam, Olga Belenkaya, also believes that the key rate at the level of 14% is the main scenario. To increase the “key” now arguments, in her opinion, no. Among the factors in favor of a pause, the expert singled out:

budget projections for the structural primary deficit of the federal budget for 2026 and 2027-2029 were no worse than the July estimates of the Bank of Russia, so the uncertainty in this issue has decreased; an additional significant increase in inflationary pressure compared to July has not yet occurred: stable inflation in August remained in the range of 5-6% SAAR, and the growth in gasoline prices in the last two weeks has significantly slowed down; Rosstat data show a slowdown in consumption growth (in July-August) and wages - according to the latest available data for July; family mortgages from October become less affordable for families with 1-2 children, which the demand is limited in this market segment.

At the same time, Belenkaya notes, there are also arguments against the rate reduction now. Among them is an increase in sustained inflationary pressure, a possible longer limitation of production opportunities, high inflation expectations of the population and business, as well as continuing credit activity.

“In general, so far, in our opinion, more data per pause in October, while it is possible to resume the rate cut in December,” said Belenkaya.

According to her, before the meeting of the Central Bank on October 23, a number of important data will be released, including inflation for full September, inflation expectations of the population and business in October, monitoring of enterprises, data on lending and savings activity. In addition to the decision on the rate, the regulator’s signal and the updated macro forecast will be important for the market.

Belenkaya also admits that the forecast of the average key rate may be slightly raised relative to July. Among the reasons, she cited higher forecasts of indexation of regulated tariffs, likely longer-term consequences of attacks on production and logistics infrastructure and less favorable external conditions.

Director of the analytical department of Digital Broker Natalia Pyreva also expects the rate to remain at 14%. According to her, inflationary pressure remains, and the planned increase in tariffs of housing and communal services and Russian Railways from October 1 will give an additional impetus to general inflation.

“According to our estimates, in the fourth quarter, the inflation picture shifts to the upper limit of the Bank of Russia’s forecast range of 6–7%, which is far from the target of 4%,” Pyreva said.

The expert also pointed to increased inflation expectations, high credit activity, primarily in the corporate segment, and outstripping wage growth relative to labor productivity. In her opinion, the budgetary impulse is maintained both in 2026 and for the next three-year period of 2027-2029, which together with the new stage of tax increases forms a structural pro-inflationary risk.

Against this background, Pyreva expects an extremely cautious approach of the Central Bank to rate decisions. In addition, at the October meeting, in her opinion, it is possible to revise the medium-term forecast: the range of the average key rate for 2027 can be increased from 10.5-12.5% to 11.0-13.5%.

The Bank of Russia is likely to keep its 14% rate and cautious rhetoric at its October meeting. He can explain this decision by making sure that there is no further acceleration of core inflation and inflation expectations. At the same time, the regulator will note that the declared budget parameters for the coming years corresponded to earlier forecasts of the Central Bank, Igor Rapokhin, senior strategist for interest rates and the debt market of SberCIB Investment Research, concluded.