The Central Bank left the official dollar exchange rate on November 11 above 82

The Central Bank of Russia set the official exchange rate of the US dollar on Wednesday, November 11, at the level of 82.5486, the euro - 92.3966, the yuan - 12.3845. This is reported on the website of the regulator.

On Tuesday, November 10, the Central Bank established the following exchange rates: dollar - 82,7536, euro - 92,3944, yuan - 12,3098.

Thus, the dollar fell by 20.5 kopecks, the euro rose by 0.22 kopecks, and the yuan rose by 7.47 kopecks.

The official rates of the Central Bank of the dollar and euros are used for settlements on contracts on the futures market of the Moscow Exchange, including futures contracts for the dollar / ruble (Si), euro / ruble (Eu), dollar / yuan (UCNY), euro / dollar (ED), dollar / tenge (UKZT), perpetual futures for the dollar / ruble pair (USDRUBF), euro / ruble (EURRUBF), futures for the RTS index (RTS and RTSM) and a number of other instruments.

At auction on Tuesday, November 10, the ruble weakened against foreign currencies. By 17:08 GMT, the yuan exchange rate (CNY/RUB TOM) on the Mosbirzh increased by 0.3% to the close on Monday and amounted to 12.41.

The USDRUB TOM tool at 16:40 MSK added 0.44%, reaching .83.42.

The USDRUB TOM instrument reflects transactions with the dollar/ruble currency pair. Payments are made the next day in rubles. The time of concluding transactions is from 9:00 to 19:00 MSK.

Trading of the currency pair USDRUB TOM was held on the Moscow Exchange until June 2024. Officially, trading in the dollar was suspended after the Moscow Exchange was included in the US sanctions list. The dollar continued to trade on the over-the-counter market, where trading operations are conducted directly between participants, without the mediation of the exchange. Deals on the USDRUB TOM instrument resumed in mid-February 2026.

What now affects the ruble exchange rate

At the beginning of this week, the trend for the weakening of the ruble remains, says the managing expert of the Center for Analytics and Expertise of PSB Denis Popov. From a fundamental point of view, the decline in the ruble is due to the fall in oil prices (at auction on November 10, the Brent price fell below $ 90 per barrel for the first time in 2 months) and the growth of daily volumes of currency purchases by the Bank of Russia under the budget rule, he explained.

From November 9 to December 4, the Ministry of Finance will buy currency and gold under the budget rule for a total amount of у312.6 billion. The daily volume of operations will be Е15.6 billion. For comparison: from October 7 to November 6, the Ministry of Finance under the budget rule bought currency for у12.7 billion per day.

In addition, the Bank of Russia sells daily currency worth у0.58 billion. Thus, net purchases by the monetary authorities will amount to 15.02 billion a day against 12.12 billion a month earlier.

BCS World Investments expert Mikhail Seltzer adds that, in addition to the above reasons, the ruble has moved to a weakening against the background of several factors:

Technical factors. By the beginning of November, foreign currency was oversold, so it attracted the attention of speculative players to increase. This affects decisions on the key rate, and through them – on the attractiveness of the ruble and its exchange rate. Previously, the ruble was supported by expectations of a reduction in geopolitical tensions. Currently, the situation remains uncertain, and news about negotiations and foreign policy developments may cause fluctuations in the foreign exchange market. Seasonal. In November, the ruble usually declines, and the dollar rises with a probability of 70%.

What will happen to the ruble exchange rate next: expert opinions

The PSB believes that the reason for the suspension of the trend for the depreciation of the ruble is likely to be the strengthening of support for the currency from the news background. The start of negotiations between Russia, Ukraine and the United States on the conflict between Moscow and Kiev, which take place on November 10-11 in Abu Dhabi (UAE), may suspend the weakening of the national currency and, if positive signals are formed, lead to a local strengthening of the ruble.

According to Denis Popov, against this background, the upper limit of the range of the yuan exchange rate г12-12.5 may remain unattainable. Moreover, with the favorable development of the situation and an increase in the supply of foreign currency from exporters during November, the expert does not exclude a noticeable strengthening of the ruble - at least up to the lower limit of this range.

BCS World Investments also expects Russian assets to show increased volatility in the next two days due to geopolitical signals. The ruble will respond to the negotiations.

Senior trader of Alfa Capital Vladislav Silayev predicts for the coming days the dollar exchange rate in the range е81.9-83.7, the euro - е91.8-93.7, the yuan - е12.2-12.5.

Vasily Karpunin, head of information and analytical content at Alfa-Investments, said that in the near future the ruble may still receive support from the receipt of export revenue earned at higher prices for raw materials.

“Between the change in world quotations and the actual receipt of foreign exchange earnings on the domestic market there is a time lag,” he explained. Therefore, the effect of the recent decline in oil prices will not appear immediately, the expert believes.

However, this factor is largely offset by an increase in currency purchases from the Ministry of Finance, so it is unlikely that the ruble will begin to strengthen again, believes Vasily Karpunin.

Moreover, by the end of November and December, the situation may become less favorable for the ruble, the expert predicts. “If oil prices remain at lower levels, new export revenues will begin to decline. At the same time, import demand may remain high, especially due to the seasonal increase in purchases before the end of the year, Karpunin writes. In his opinion, this combination of factors will put additional pressure on the ruble.

By the end of November, Alfa-Investments expects a moderate weakening of the ruble. According to Karpunin, the dollar may rise to 83-84.5, the yuan - 12.5-12.7.

The news is supplemented