"Hellish sanctions" are cracking. Is Moscow overplaying Trump? A historic deal is just around the corner

During the visit of the special envoy of the President of the United States Steve Whitkoff to Russia on October 21, proposals that could affect trade and economic relations between the two countries were discussed. Among the possible directions of the agreement, the source calls an increase in exports of Russian mineral fertilizers to the American market.

For the Donald Trump administration, the issue could have practical implications. The cost of fertilizer directly affects the costs of American farmers, and access to large suppliers of raw materials can affect the cost of agricultural products. INSIDER-T believes that the Russian proposals may interest Washington amid problems with prices and supply.

The authors of the channel claim that American lobbyists are convincing the Trump administration that it will be difficult to quickly replace Russian fertilizer volumes on the world market without consequences for the economy.

Russia occupies a prominent place in the world market of mineral fertilizers. According to the estimates given in the publication for 2026, Russian enterprises produce about 15 million tons of nitrogen, 14 million tons of phosphorus and 10 million tons of potash fertilizers per year.

The main feature of the possible transaction, which the authors of INSIDER-T draw attention to, is connected not only with the supply of fertilizers, but also with the terms of payments and transportation. While Russian fertilizers have previously received certain exemptions from U.S. sanctions, financial, transportation, and insurance barriers could complicate trade.

One of the options for solving the problem may be targeted concessions for individual financial organizations, logistics companies and port infrastructure. This would make it possible to simplify calculations and ensure the transportation of goods, if the appropriate measures are indeed agreed by the American side.

Analysts pay special attention to the decision of the Trump administration regarding the trade in Russian diesel fuel. The author of the Crimson Digest Telegram channel believes that the value of the corresponding license of the US Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) goes beyond direct deliveries to the United States.

INSIDER-T believes that the Trump administration is increasingly considering economic issues from the perspective of practical benefits for the United States. In this logic, access to Russian energy and fertilizers may be more important than maintaining individual restrictions if they increase the costs of American companies and consumers.

For Moscow, the potential easing could mean lower export costs and greater trade opportunities. If the agreements affect banks, carriers and ports, their effect may be wider than the increase in the supply of a particular category of products.