New Gold: Why the Price of Copper is Rising in 2026

The cost of copper is near record values. This year, copper on the London Metal Exchange rose by more than 17%. Experts expect that in the near future growth will continue and by the end of 2026 the cost of the metal can reach $ 16 thousand per ton. On Wednesday, September 23, the special representative of the President of Russia for investment and economic cooperation with foreign countries and the head of RDIF Kirill Dmitriev called copper “new gold”. Why the value of the metal is growing and through what tools the Russian investor can win back the growth - RBC Investments learned from experts.

Why copper is so expensive

The rise in prices for this metal has been observed over the past three years. Earlier at auction on September 10, copper futures on the London Metal Exchange updated the historical maximum, reaching $14,870.8 per ton.

On Wednesday, September 23, at the peak, copper futures with delivery in three months increased by 0.6% and amounted to $14,862 per ton.

The growth of quotations was supported by expectations of an increase in demand for metal for the construction of data centers and the expansion of power grids. In addition, this year, a large amount of copper was delivered to the United States in anticipation of the decision of US President Donald Trump to impose duties on imports of this metal.

This has led to a decline in copper stocks in warehouses tracked by the London Metal Exchange around the world. In addition, the activity of copper buyers in China increased, which increased competition for supplies. At the same time, there is a steady depletion of ores at old copper deposits.

According to TradingEconomics, Sprott Asset Management, a company specializing in metals trading, said that this year the volume of global copper production may decrease for the first time since 2017 due to supply disruptions, a decrease in the metal content in ore and a drop in production figures in Chile. Outages in major mines in Indonesia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo have also reduced projected annual output by about 600,000 tonnes,

How prices will change: expert opinions

On the horizon of three to four months, the cost of copper can speculatively grow to $ 16 thousand per ton, says the head of the analytical department of the Criminal Code of PSB Alexander Golovtsov. According to him, the rise in the price of copper can continue tentatively until the end of the year, if investors do not begin to record profits on speculative positions in all metals against the background of higher rates by the largest central banks.

According to the forecasts of Pavel Gamov, an expert on the mining and metallurgical industry of the Stolypin Institute for Growth Economics, the copper market will remain volatile, but with a bias towards updating the maximums, prices may be in the range of $14.8-15.5 thousand per ton. By 2030, he forecasts a range of $15,000 to $17,000 per tonne and above, with the acceleration of power grid development, the development of artificial intelligence and military-industrial complex infrastructure, and the slow commissioning of new mines.

In 2027-2029, the structural deficit of copper in the world market may be 2-4 million tons per year with consumption of about 27 million tons, said Victoria Sitnikova, an analyst at Alor Broker. Even after a possible short-term correction, supply shortages will support prices. On the horizon of three to five years, Sitnikova admits their growth to $ 17-20 thousand per ton.

VTB My Investments believes that the market of basic non-ferrous metals will continue the growth cycle. In the coming year, the company expects the price of copper to rise to $17,000 per ton, aluminum to $4,000 per ton, palladium to $1,800 per ounce, platinum to $2,200 per ounce.

What tools can the Russian investor win back the price increase

For a Russian investor, there are almost no options to get exposure to the “supercycle” of metals through the domestic market, Marat Reichel, senior investment consultant of the financial group “Finam”, said in the “Investment Hour” program on Radio RBC. According to him, the investor can bet on copper only through MMC. In particular, we are talking about shares of PJSC MMC Norilsk Nickel (GMKN). Nickel and palladium live their lives.

Thus, ferrous metallurgy is focused on the domestic market and, according to Reichel, will not be associated with this cycle. The Russian electric power industry is also outside the overall growth cycle, as it is mainly focused on domestic consumption.

The expert believes that a Russian investor should look for assets in foreign markets. For example, the papers of companies responsible for infrastructure or related to the connection of data centers to the common electricity network, the expert said.

They may not even trade in the U.S. market, but they will in the future, because there is a trend. Look at what a lot of big funds do — they just stamp ETFs one by one on specific stories. I am sure that the ETF for these companies will also be created, he said.

Speaking about the timing of the investment, Reichel noted that when it comes to a supercycle, it usually lasts for years, so, in his opinion, the investor can gain exposure gradually.

I think it’s better to take your time, because you can go to the peak of the first wave, and then the whole supercycle sits at zero at best. If you want to get an exposure, look outside, he advised.