The dollar froze in anticipation: what is happening in the foreign exchange market of Belarus

September dollar appreciation in the Belarusian foreign exchange market temporarily suspended. Following the results of trading on September 7-8, the exchange rate changed by less than a penny, repeating the sluggish dynamics of the Russian ruble. The reason is a set of measures to support the Russian currency. Details - in the material of the correspondent of "Minsk-Novosti".

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Following the Russian ruble

On Monday, September 7, the dollar at currency trading of the Belarusian Exchange fell by 0.007 BYN; on Tuesday, September 8, rose by 0.005 BYN. This sluggish dynamics was brought to the Belarusian financial market from Russia, where the US currency also fluctuates in a narrow range.

After the dollar exchange rate on the Russian OTC market in August rose into the corridor of 85-87 rubles, further growth temporarily stopped. The reason is several factors supporting the Russian currency, which will determine the formation of the exchange rate in the near future.

Oil pushes ruble up

One of the key circumstances was the rise in oil prices amid the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. The parties to the conflict then announce the cessation of the exchange of strikes, then resume them again. The price of benchmark Brent oil is approaching 100 USD per barrel, Russian Urals is approaching 87 USD.

In addition, according to Russian oil traders, the volume of supplies of Russian varieties from Far Eastern ports to Asian countries is increasing. The rise in oil prices has resumed since about the beginning of August, and given the delayed effect in September, the Russian market is expected to increase the supply of foreign currency.

The Ministry of Finance of Russia reduces currency interventions

Last week, the Russian Ministry of Finance announced a decrease in foreign currency purchases in the domestic market - from 5.9 billion to 1.9 billion rubles. And last Thursday, the agency placed federal loan bonds worth 1 trillion rubles, which led to an additional withdrawal of ruble liquidity. All this moved the dollar to the lower boundary of the price corridor, where it is safely located this week.

What will the Central Bank of Russia decide on September 11

On Friday, September 11, a regular meeting of the Bank of Russia Board of Directors on monetary policy will be held. Recall that the current key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation is 14% after the minimum step of reduction of 0.25% at the July meeting.

Opinions of market participants about the next steps were almost equally divided. It is possible that the Bank of Russia will reduce the rate by another 0.25%. It is also permissible to leave it unchanged. In any case, the current value of the key rate is quite high, and it will not have any significant impact on the sharp change in the ruble exchange rate. According to the forecasts of the Central Bank, this level will remain at least until the end of 2027, therefore, the dollar exchange rate in the Russian market will remain close to current values.

Forecast for Belarus: the dollar in the corridor

Returning to the Belarusian foreign exchange market, we can conclude that a soft rise in the dollar to the range of 3.08-3.10 BYN is quite acceptable. However, reaching higher values before the end of 2026 is unlikely. The only exception is something fundamental that will lead to a sharp decline in the Russian market. But the events and meetings of the past weekend, on the contrary, give reason, albeit weak, to hope for an end to the conflict near the southern borders of Belarus. And the dollar is still around the current quotes.