Economist Shcherbachenko described how the new rate of the Central Bank will affect deposits and loans

According to Peter Shcherbachenko, with a probability of about 95%, the regulator will leave it at the level of 14%. The main event of the meeting, the expert calls not the rate, but an updated forecast - it is in it that a signal will be hidden about when policy easing will begin.

Formally, inflation in the country is declining: in annual terms as of October 12, it was 7% after 7.17% a week earlier. But the sense of rising prices among people is not abating: in September, annual inflation expectations of the population rose to 14.2% from 13.7% in August. The housing and utilities factor also contributes - the Ministry of Economic Development estimated the contribution of tariff indexation to weekly inflation at 0.75 percentage points.

Fuel, according to the Central Bank, still determines the price picture, although the pressure in the stable part of the consumer price index has eased slightly. Echoes of the fuel factor remain in goods with a high transport component.

The difficulty is in arithmetic itself. The method of calculating the annual inflation of the Ministry of Economic Development and the Central Bank is different: according to the methodology of the Ministry of Economic Development (through the average daily data for the whole of October 2025), the indicator for October 12 increased to 7.22% from 6.35% at the end of September, and according to the methodology of the Central Bank (through the weekly dynamics) to 7.02%. This discrepancy makes the October meeting “reference”: the regulator will clarify the medium-term forecast for the baseline scenario and assess the impact of tariff and fuel factors.

Shcherbachenko distributed his assessments as follows:

With a pause, the yield on deposits will remain in the current range - about 11.75-13% in banks from the top 10, the average maximum rate is about 12.95%. According to the first decade of October, the maximum rates in the top 10 banks were distributed as follows:

Term of contribution (rate, dynamics):

The peak of profitability, the expert emphasizes, has been passed: after the key rate, deposit interest will gradually decrease.

It is wiser to fix current high rates while they are double-digit – short deposits for 3-6 months with maximum interest and liquidity work best. I propose to collect a ladder of deposits: one deposit for 3-6 months, the second for a long time, with money that will not be needed quickly. It is necessary to calculate the profitability in advance and choose based on your own financial goal, the expert says.

At a rate of 14%, credit rates will also remain in place. Hence the simple logic: the decline in October should not be expected. Consumer credit makes sense to take only when urgently needed, and Shcherbachenko advises to postpone a large purchase as collateral until December or until 2027, when the key rate may likely go down. Before any loan - in advance to calculate the full cost: the purchase price, and the amount of interest payments.