The ruble presents surprises: the national currency has rolled down

What factors affect the ruble exchange rate in November?

At the beginning of the month, a lot turned out against the Russian currency. The main factors are external. After all, the ruble in October strengthened largely due to the increase in oil prices. The benchmark Brent brand rose in price last month from $97 to $118 per barrel. Russian variety Urals - from $102 to $132. First of all, because of the growing tension in the Persian Gulf, and the war between Iran and the United States. President Donald Trump has threatened to step up strikes on Iran, and Tehran and its allies have stepped up blocking oil supply routes.

But things suddenly changed in early November. Donald Trump’s Republican Party was defeated in both houses of Congress. The president has largely lost leverage over the legislature. The Democratic Party, which will now control parliament, is curtailing Trump's policy options. He has already said that the way of negotiations is more important and hopes for reducing tensions have increased.

Oil prices immediately responded with a sharp decline. Brent fell to $97.7 and Urals to $75.3, sliding to two-month lows. It can be assumed that the foreign exchange earnings of exporters will gradually decrease.

What affects the ruble domestically?

Another important factor for the ruble is the increase in foreign currency purchases under the “budget rule” by the Ministry of Finance. The agency announced that from November 9 to December 4 it will raise them to 15.6 billion rubles a day from 12.7 billion rubles in October. This is due to high oil prices in October.

Thus, the market lays in prices a future decrease in the supply of currency and an increase in demand for it. This will be facilitated by the traditional surge in imports before the New Year.

In addition, at the end of October, the period of payment of quarterly and monthly taxes of exporters ended. He supported the ruble due to increased sales of foreign exchange earnings.

So the ruble in November is doomed to weaken. How sharp is it?

It is unlikely to expect a noticeable collapse of the ruble in November. It is supported by maintaining at a high level (14%) the key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, limiting the provision of ruble mass to them. The growth of the dollar may be limited in the case of progress in negotiations on the Russia-Ukraine line, or with a new wave of rising oil prices.

- What's the course going to be?

The most likely in November range of dollar quotes to the ruble: 82-85 rubles, to the yuan - 12.2-12.5 rubles.