International analysts have significantly improved expectations for the growth of the Belarusian economy

The Eurasian Fund for Stabilization and Development has published a new regional review containing forecasts for economic growth, inflation and other macroeconomic indicators of Belarus for 2026-2029. According to the EFSD forecast, the country's economy will grow by 2 percent in 2026. The International Monetary Fund has also adjusted its estimates for the future of the Belarusian economy. The forecast was revised upwards, and noticeably. Told you

President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko:

- To preempt skeptics’ attacks on macroeconomic imbalances, we have a stable, normal economy. The debt burden is decreasing, gold and foreign exchange reserves are at a historical maximum, and trust in the national currency has deservedly grown. Given the initial conditions, the results for the usual life of people are generally acceptable. Stable employment, decent income and security have been ensured.

During the Address to the Belarusian people and the National Assembly "Time for concrete deeds" at the second meeting of the Seventh All-Belarusian People's Assembly, December 18, 2025.

The Belarusian economy, as you know, is open. And the processes taking place in the world affect our country to some extent. Nevertheless, despite global geopolitical and geo-economic turbulence, Belarus remains resilient. This is best illustrated by the statistics. According to the latest data of Belstat, in January-August of this year, GDP grew by 1.9 percent and amounted to 209.1 billion rubles. Leaders in terms of contribution and growth rates of gross value added are agriculture, information and communication, transport and trade. According to the results of January-August, the industry was entrenched in the green zone: the rate of industrial production was 100.2 percent. At the same time, products go to shelves, not to warehouses: as of September 1, 2026, the cost of inventories amounted to 75.9 percent of the average monthly production volume, which is 4.6 percentage points lower than last year. As a result, the profitability of sales, net profit and the level of wages in the industry are growing. The efficient operation of the economy allowed to ensure a high level of average wages in January-July about 2960 rubles. The average age pension exceeded 1060 rubles.

A positive trend is also noticed by foreign experts. This is the reason for the revision of forecasts for our country. In particular, the estimate of GDP growth of Belarus was increased by the Eurasian Fund for Stabilization and Development by 0.7 percentage points. In the summer review, the fund forecast growth of 1.3 percent. Experts stressed that the main factors of growth will be the recovery of investment activity, high consumer demand and improved economic conditions.

- In the medium term, the Belarusian economy will grow at a pace close to equilibrium. In 2027, an increase of 1.2 percent is expected, in 2028 - by 1.1 percent, and in 2029 - by 1.3 percent, the EFSD announced its forecast.

According to the Fund, inflation in Belarus by the end of 2026 will be 5.2 percent, which is significantly lower than the limit of 7 percent set for the year. In 2027, it is projected to accelerate to 6.4 percent. By 2029, the fund forecasts inflation is expected at 5.2 percent.

Mikhail Kovalev. “The indicator of the growth of the Belarusian economy is an increase in investment and the development of export potential,” says Mikhail Kovalev, Professor of the Faculty of Economics of the BSU, Honored Scientist of the Republic of Belarus. As for investments, they are the basis for the development of the economy, the introduction of new technologies, increasing labor productivity and, ultimately, the quality of life of people. The increase in income allows Belarusians to behave more actively in the consumer market. As a result, retail turnover is growing. According to the latest data, in the eight months of 2026, it increased by 8.4 percent. This, I think, is an indicative result. The International Monetary Fund has also adjusted estimates of the future for our economy. This follows from the October report “World Economic Outlook”. Experts of the fund expect that this year the economy of Belarus will grow by 1.9 percent. However, for 2027 the forecast is more modest - 1.2 percent. However, both indicators are higher than the April estimates: then the IMF gave 1.2 and 1 percent, respectively. The forecast of analysts of the fund on inflation in Belarus fell sharply: in 2026 and 2027, in their opinion, it will be 5.1 percent. Previously, other figures were indicated: 6.4 and 6.2 percent, respectively. Unemployment in our country, according to the organization, in 2026 and 2027 will not exceed 2.5 percent. At the same time, the April forecast said that during this period it will be at the level of 2.9 percent.

By the way, in its report, the IMF improved its forecast for global economic growth for 2026 from 3 to 3.1 percent. The estimate for next year remained unchanged: 3.4 percent. Over the past six months, the global economy has shown greater resilience to the Middle East conflict than expected. To contain the impact on oil prices due to the confrontation between the United States and Iran, the redirection of black gold supplies bypassing the Strait of Hormuz and the use of strategic energy reserves helped. At the same time, the IMF warns that the ability of countries to resist new oil shocks is gradually shrinking. The experts concluded that without strengthening production capacity and replenishing reserves provided by the state, the world economy may soon experience the limits of its resilience. Extraordinary oil reserves are already exhausted, and high debt and budget deficits limit governments’ ability to protect consumers from another price spike.

sichevich@sb.by