Alfa-Bank allowed the growth of gold prices to $5,000 per ounce in 2027

Analysts of Alfa-Bank believe that the potential for growth in gold prices remains and by the end of next year the value of the precious metal may exceed $ 5,000 per ounce. Thus, compared to the current price, the quotes of the precious metal can grow by almost 20%. This is stated in the monthly review of gold of Alfa Bank, prepared by Boris Krasnozhenov and Elizaveta Arbuzova (RBC Investments has).

The average price on the horizon of 2027, experts predict at $4700 per ounce.

According to analysts, the price of gold at just above $4,150 per ounce represents an attractive level for entering the position when forming the protective part of the investment portfolio. At trading on Friday, October 9, December gold futures on COMEX were trading near the level of $4200 per ounce.

In the fourth quarter, the key impact on the price of gold will be the dynamics of inflation expectations and real yield in the bond market, according to Alfa Bank. In addition, investment demand remains strong, with significant inflows of gold ETFs in all regions of the world in September.

Demand from the world’s central banks for gold also persisted: in August, they again showed net purchases – the fourth month in a row, increasing their reserves by 39 tons. This indicates that central banks continue to be guided by long-term goals in the management of foreign exchange reserves.

Alfa Bank experts also noted significant interest in the precious metal from China. China’s total gold imports are moving to highs not seen since 2017. At the end of August, the volume of purchases since the beginning of 2026 exceeded 1 thousand tons, surpassing the total figure for the whole of 2025. If such rates continue, the annual volume of imports may reach more than 1.5 thousand tons, Alfa Bank admits.

Analysts warned that gold prices could remain under pressure in the short term. A new energy shock as conflict escalates in the Middle East and a further Fed rate hike could intensify the correction in the coming months. Experts have lowered the forecast for the average price of the precious metal for 2026 from $ 4,700 to $ 4,555 per ounce, while the price at the end of 2026, in their opinion, may be $ 4,500 per ounce. But in the future, Alfa Bank expects a resumption of price growth.

The long-term factors supporting the demand for gold include the growth of the US government debt over $40 trillion, growing concerns of market participants about the position of the US dollar and the desire of the world’s central banks to diversify reserves. In addition, a steady recovery in the value of gold can also contribute to the weakening of the dollar and real yields, while maintaining inflows into gold ETFs.

Last year, the gold market saw a rally, which continued in early 2026. The maximum price for gold was recorded at auction on January 29 - $ 5,626.8 per ounce. However, then prices began to adjust and in June fell below $4,000 per ounce. Since then, gold has recovered some of the losses.

In the Ministry of Finance, the prospects for the gold market are assessed positively. Earlier, Deputy Finance Minister Alexei Moiseev admitted that over the next 12 months, gold prices could reach $5,000 per ounce. He sees no other scenario for gold than rising prices, given the monetary policy situation in a number of Western countries.

Analysts of Aton also allow an increase in the value of gold to $ 5,000 per ounce. According to them, the situation in the Middle East remains the main driver for precious metal prices. Depending on its development, the price of gold can start to rise to $5,000 per ounce or fall to $4,000. Experts also noted that on the 20-year horizon, gold overtook all key assets in Russia.

Analysts at Finama in the baseline scenario predict that the price of the precious metal in the fourth quarter may try to break the mark of $4700 per ounce, and then rise to the level of $5,000 by the end of 2026 or in the first quarter of 2027. In an optimistic scenario, experts predict that gold prices in the fourth quarter could reach $5,600 per ounce.

VTB My Investments does not exclude the high volatility of gold quotes in the next 12 months. The average cost of metal on this horizon, according to analysts, may be $ 4,250 per ounce. Geopolitical and macroeconomic factors, including the declining role of the dollar as the world’s reserve currency, are supporting demand for gold as a protective asset.

In the coming year, according to analysts of VTB My Investments, insufficient exploration volumes and ore depletion will remain a factor of fundamental support for gold prices, which limit the long-term growth of the precious metal supply. The main driver of price increases may be the increase in the cost of gold production, including against the background of high fuel prices.