Analysts in the survey of the Central Bank worsened forecasts for the ruble and the key rate

Analysts polled by the Central Bank in the period from 9-13 October 2026, raised the forecast for the average dollar exchange rate by 0.1-0.8% in 2026-2028. Now experts expect that the average exchange rate this year will be at the level of ,80 per dollar, which suggests the average exchange rate in October-December ,85.3, follows from the data of the Bank of Russia Macroeconomic Survey for October.

On Wednesday, October 14, the Central Bank set the official dollar exchange rate below 84 at 83.87.

Estimates for 2027-2028 increased more noticeably, and the forecast for the dollar for 2029, on the contrary, was lowered.

New forecasts for the average dollar exchange rate (compared to the September survey of the Central Bank):

in 2026 - о80 (instead of о79.9); in 2027 - о89.4 (instead of о88.8); in 2028 - о94.8 (instead of о94); in 2029 - о96.4 (instead of о97.2).

In the coming years, survey participants also expect higher inflation and a key rate. Thus, the updated forecast for 2026 assumes an average key rate of 14.6% per annum, that is, for the remainder of 2026, the average key rate is expected unchanged - 14%. The estimate of the neutral rate was also increased by 0.5 percentage points, to 8.5% per annum.

New forecasts for the average key rate:

in 2026 - 14.6% (instead of 14.5%); in 2027 - 12.8% (instead of 12.4%); in 2028 - 10.8% (instead of 10%); in 2029 - 9.2%. (instead of 8.6 percent).

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