The Central Bank left the official dollar exchange rate on October 15 below 84

The Central Bank of Russia set the official exchange rate of the US dollar on Thursday, October 15, at the level of 83.9497, the euro - 93.9229, the yuan - 12.5358. This is reported on the website of the regulator.

On Wednesday, October 14, the Central Bank established the following exchange rates: dollar - 83.8675, euro - 93.7723, yuan - 12.5028.

Thus, the dollar rose by 8.22 kopecks, the euro by 15.06 kopecks, and the yuan by 3.30 kopecks.

The official rates of the Central Bank of the dollar and euros are used for settlements on contracts on the futures market of the Moscow Exchange, including futures contracts for the dollar / ruble (Si), euro / ruble (Eu), dollar / yuan (UCNY), euro / dollar (ED), dollar / tenge (UKZT), perpetual futures for the dollar / ruble pair (USDRUBF), euro / ruble (EURRUBF), futures for the RTS index (RTS and RTSM) and a number of other instruments.

At the auction on Wednesday, October 14, the ruble exchange rate showed mixed dynamics against foreign currencies. By 17:12 MSK, the yuan exchange rate (CNY / RUB TOM) on the Moscow Exchange decreased by 0.39% compared to the level before the close of trading on Tuesday and amounted to 12.51.

Tool USDRUB TOM at 17:00 MSK rose by 0.13%, reaching .84.38.

The USDRUB TOM instrument reflects transactions with the dollar/ruble currency pair. Payments are made the next day in rubles. The time of concluding transactions is from 9:00 to 19:00 MSK.

Trading of the currency pair USDRUB TOM was held on the Moscow Exchange until June 2024. Officially, trading in the dollar was suspended after the Moscow Exchange was included in the US sanctions list. The dollar continued to trade on the over-the-counter market, where trading operations are conducted directly between participants, without the mediation of the exchange. Deals on the USDRUB TOM instrument resumed in mid-February 2026.

What now affects the ruble exchange rate

As noted by the expert of “BCS World of Investments” Mikhail Seltzer, the national currency for several days strengthened against the backdrop of geopolitical easing after the conclusion of the diesel deal. According to him, the risk premium in the ruble exchange rate decreased, and traders reduced their positions in defensive currency instruments.

On October 9, US President Donald Trump announced an agreement with Russian President Vladimir Putin to supply Russian diesel fuel to world markets.

Later, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov reported that foreign exchange earnings from the export of diesel fuel will support the balance of payments of Russia.

At the same time, the General Director of Alfa-Forex, Guzel Protsenko, draws attention to the fact that the main pressure on the Russian currency is now associated with the operations of the monetary authorities within the framework of the budget rule.

In the period from October 7 to November 6, the Ministry of Finance will buy currency and gold under the budget rule for a total of у 279.42 billion. The daily volume of purchases will thus amount to Е12.7 billion. For comparison: from September 7 to October 6, the Ministry of Finance under the budget rule bought currency for у2.5 billion per day. That is, daily purchases have increased fivefold.

In addition, the Central Bank simultaneously daily until the end of the year sells currency for у0.58 billion. Thus, net purchases by the monetary authorities will amount to 12.12 billion a day against 1.92 billion a month earlier (an increase of 6.3 times).

At the same time, according to Protsenko, the shift in the market balance towards the supply of foreign currency from exporters and the preservation of a high key rate of the Central Bank create conditions for the continuation of the correctional movement, which began in early September.

What will happen to the ruble exchange rate next: expert opinions

Seltzer believes that now is likely to stabilize the pairs and even rebound. The yuan has already risen in price, from the dollar and euro exchange rates of the Central Bank, you can also expect a local recovery. The nearest benchmark is the return of the dollar to й85, then the euro will be at й95, and the yuan will head towards resistance й12.7, he wrote.

Bogdan Zvaric, head of banking and financial markets analysis at PSB, believes that in the coming weeks the ruble will try to continue the wave of recovery due to the growth of foreign exchange supply from exporters. According to him, this will contribute both to the receipt of revenues from the sale of oil at higher prices, and preparation for tax payments. These factors could lead to the yuan moving into the 12-12.5 range, with risks of testing its lower bound, as well as anchoring the dollar in the lower half of the 80-85 range.

The news is supplemented

Read "RBC Investments" in "Max".