The Central Bank lowered the dollar below 83 for the first time in two months

The Central Bank of Russia set the official exchange rate of the US dollar on Tuesday, October 20, at the level of 82,8504, the euro - 93,2316, the yuan - 12,3869. This is reported on the website of the regulator. Below 83 course has not been since August 22.

On the weekend and Monday, October 19, the Central Bank established the following exchange rates: dollar - 83,6177, euro - 93,7187, yuan - 12,4950.

Thus, the dollar fell by 76.73 kopecks, the euro by 48.71 kopecks, and the yuan fell by 10.81 kopecks.

The official rates of the Central Bank of the dollar and euros are used for settlements on contracts on the futures market of the Moscow Exchange, including futures contracts for the dollar / ruble (Si), euro / ruble (Eu), dollar / yuan (UCNY), euro / dollar (ED), dollar / tenge (UKZT), perpetual futures for the dollar / ruble pair (USDRUBF), euro / ruble (EURRUBF), futures for the RTS index (RTS and RTSM) and a number of other instruments.

At the auction on Monday, October 20, the ruble strengthened against foreign currencies. By 17:02 MSK, the yuan exchange rate (CNY / RUB TOM) on the Moscow Exchange decreased by 0.7% compared to the level to the close of trading and amounted to 12.37.

Tool USDRUB TOM at 16:46 MSK fell by 0.7%, reaching .83.14.

The USDRUB TOM instrument reflects transactions with the dollar/ruble currency pair. Payments are made the next day in rubles. The time of concluding transactions is from 9:00 to 19:00 MSK.

Trading of the currency pair USDRUB TOM was held on the Moscow Exchange until June 2024. Officially, trading in the dollar was suspended after the Moscow Exchange was included in the US sanctions list. The dollar continued to trade on the over-the-counter market, where trading operations are conducted directly between participants, without the mediation of the exchange. Deals on the USDRUB TOM instrument resumed in mid-February 2026.

What now affects the ruble exchange rate

The ruble looks strong, since the geopolitical agenda so far allows investors to count on a moderately positive development of events, said Vladimir Evstifeev, chief analyst of Zenit Bank.

Dmitry Babin, an expert at BCS World of Investments, also believes that the rise in the price of the ruble contributes to the improvement of the news background associated with geopolitics. This provokes sales of foreign currency by an increasing number of those players who used it to protect against geopolitical risks.

The factor against the ruble is the purchase of currency by the Ministry of Finance within the framework of the budget rule, which increased five times in October, Vladislav Silayev, a senior trader at Alfa Capital, reminded. In addition, a more significant strengthening of the ruble may be hampered by the activity of importers who are preparing for New Year sales, the expert added.

What will happen to the ruble exchange rate next: expert opinions

In the PSB believe that in the near future, the ruble may continue its gradual growth against the background of an increase in supply from exporters both due to revenues from the sale of oil in September at higher prices, and due to the start of preparations for the peak of tax payments, which falls on October 28. According to Bogdan Zvarich, manager for analysis of banking and financial markets of PSB, the volume of deductions to the budget from oil and gas companies will more than double compared to September, which will increase the need for exporters in ruble liquidity, part of which can be satisfied by currency conversion. The PSB expects a gradual shift of the yuan to the lower border of the corridor 12.3-12.8.

According to Viktor Grigoriev, an analyst at the Bank of St. Petersburg, in general, the risks of a stable exit of the CNY/RUB pair down from the range of 12.4-12.6 are increasing, especially against the background of possible sales of foreign currency by Russian exporters for tax payments.

Spartak Sobolev, head of the Alfa-Forex investment strategy research department, predicts that this week the dollar exchange rate will continue to move within ,81-85, and the euro exchange rate in the ,90-95.7 range. The yuan will be traded in the corridor е12.15-12.7.

In the Criminal Code "First" suggest that if there are no significant changes in external conditions and geopolitics, in the second half of October, the dollar may move into the corridor ,80-84, and the yuan exchange rate in the range ,11.9-12.6. An important event for the market will be the meeting of the Bank of Russia on the rate. Its results may provide little support for the ruble’s positions or may be neutral for the foreign exchange market, said Natalia Vashchelyuk, senior analyst of the Criminal Code “First”.

The rate meeting is scheduled for October 23. At the October meeting, the Bank of Russia will again decide to keep the key rate at 14% per annum, according to participants of the consensus forecast of RBC — analysts of banks and investment companies. The option of a pause at the next meeting was supported by 27 of the 30 experts interviewed. Two more admitted that the Central Bank can raise the key rate by 25 bp to 14.25% per annum. One analyst believes that the regulator has all the arguments in favor of easing monetary policy.

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