Index of Moscow Exchange, inflation, ruble and shares of EuroTrans: investor digest

Mobiri Index

The index of the Moscow Exchange for the past week fell by 1.15%. "But there is a nuance - it was up to -4% and a quick redemption of a deep drawdown," said Mikhail Seltzer, an expert at BCS World of Investments. Technologically, it is encouraging, and the focus is again 2,500 points. Fundamentally, much will depend on quick geopolitical signals from the UAE.

The Russian market finished Friday at 2,476.7 points (IMOEX2). Over the weekend, the index rose to 2487.01 points.

On the morning of Monday, November 9, the index of the Moscow Exchange loses 0.35% compared to Sunday, to 2478.31 points.

The Russian market enters the new week in a state of unstable equilibrium. After the decline after oil, the index of Mosbirzhi partially recovered, but it is too early to talk about a full-fledged reversal, writes Yaroslav Kabakov, director of strategy for FG Finam. Technically, the market is again close to an important resistance of around 2,500 points. Failure to overcome resistance will create conditions for another wave of profit-taking, the expert warned.

In general, the Russian market is likely to continue trading in high sensitivity to news this week. The main mistake is to take any increase in the index as the beginning of a full-fledged bullish trend. The Russian market is still a market of events, not fundamental valuations, Kabakov said.

Russian currency

On Friday, November 6, the ruble weakened against the yuan. The yuan rose 0.5% from the previous working day, to 12.2825. USDRUB TOM fell 0.15% to 82.1775.

The Central Bank of Russia set the official exchange rate of the US dollar for the weekend and Monday, November 9, at 82.1386, the euro - 92.1924, the yuan - 12.2651.

From Monday, the Bank of Russia will increase purchases of currency in the market. From November 9 to December 4, the Ministry of Finance will buy currency and gold under the budget rule for у312.6 billion. The daily volume of operations will be Е15.6 billion. For comparison: from October 7 to November 6, the Ministry of Finance under the budget rule bought currency for у12.7 billion per day.

In addition, the Bank of Russia sells daily currency worth у0.58 billion. Thus, net purchases by the monetary authorities will amount to 15.02 billion a day against 12.12 billion a month earlier.

The volume of foreign currency purchases in November is significantly higher than previous volumes and potentially creates additional demand for foreign currency, said Yaroslav Kabakov, Finama Strategy Director. In the context of lower oil prices and worsening export revenues, the factor of budget operations may increase pressure on the ruble. Counter flows, export sales of currency, tax payments and the dynamics of the balance of payments are also important. Nevertheless, the combination of more active purchases of the Ministry of Finance and lower oil prices increases the likelihood of further weakening of the national currency, the expert believes.

Calendar factor in the form of a reduced supply of foreign currency from exporters due to the peak of tax payments, the rollback of oil prices, and an increase in foreign currency purchases from Monday under the budget rule form the prerequisites for the release of the Chinese currency in the upper half of the range у12-12.5, says the head of analysis of banking and financial markets PSB Bogdan Zvarich. Moreover, in the event of a further rollback of quotations in the energy market, the yuan may try to reach above the 12.5 mark in the short term, the PSB predicts.

Inflation

According to Rosstat, from October 27 to November 2, the consumer price index decreased by 0.04%. A week earlier, growth was at 0.08%. In part, this result was provided by a decrease in the price of gasoline by 2.04%, analysts of Alfa-Investments noted.

The Ministry of Economic Development reported that year-on-year inflation on November 2 was at 6.95% compared to 7.11% on October 26.

“It is likely that these statistics led to the outperforming dynamics of many loaned companies over the weekend, as the slowdown in inflation is perceived by participants as a factor in favor of earlier PrEP easing.” However, it is premature to make forecasts based on the statistics of one week, said Vasily Karpunin, head of information and analytical content at Alfa-Investments.

This is a local monetary positive, but until the end of the year the Central Bank rate may remain unchanged. The factor of the PrEP rate, of course, is important, but now it is clearly inferior to the geopolitical driver, and the sensitivity of the stock market to price trends in the economy is reduced, said Mikhail Zeltzer, an expert at BCS World of Investments.

EuroTrans shares

Shares of the company “EuroTrans” fell sharply on the news that the network of gas stations “Trassa”, owned by the company, suspended work.

The decline began on Sunday, quotes lost 5.58%, after which they hit the bar at the level of у20.3 per paper. In Monday's morning session, shares were down another 9.85%, dropping to рен18.3. Further, the papers again stopped at the bar due to the restrictions of the Moscow Exchange. Compared to the close of trading on Friday, the decline reached 12.65%.

According to the Ministry of Energy of the Moscow region, all 53 filling stations do not work in the region. In total, the Trassa has 57 filling stations – 53 in the Moscow region and 4 in other regions. All gas stations were leased by EuroTrans from Gazprombank Leasing. Now the leasing company carries out the withdrawal of all gas stations. As of Sunday, 40 gas stations were already sealed, another 17 were planned to be withdrawn before the end of the week.

“EuroTrans is facing bankruptcy proceedings,” the ministry said.

“The outlook for shareholders of the company’s shares and bonds remains uncertain. In case of bankruptcy, as a rule, investors do not receive any compensation for their securities, analysts of Alfa-Investment noted.

Corporate events

Rusal. Board meeting. On the agenda is the issue of dividends for nine months; "T-Technologies." Board meeting. On the agenda is the nine-month dividend; Genetico. Financial results under RAS for nine months of 2026.

Other important developments

conference "Russian Metal Market - 2026".