Igor Tour on how Belarus could be at the center of a military conflict

Belarus could be drawn into an armed conflict according to the Ukrainian scenario, ONT political observer Igor Tour said in a new issue of the Propaganda project. In his opinion, the unity of society helps to preserve peace and prevent external interference.

Belarus could become a theater of war

The military conflict in the region threatened not only Ukraine. In a different scenario after 2020, Belarus could also become an arena for confrontation between external forces.

There could have been a similar war on the territory of Belarus, and not only could, but was even directly considered. We could again be a theater of war, when the opposing forces find out relations at home, Tour said.

In this case, the country could be divided into zones of influence, and the fate of the Belarusian people could be decided without its participation. He compared the possible scenario with the consequences of the Riga Peace Treaty of 1921.

Unity as a Protection Against External Interference

Igor Tur believes that the division of society can create conditions for outside interference. Mass clashes between supporters of different political forces could be presented as a civil war and used to justify the introduction of foreign troops.

And if an army enters Belarus from the West, the same army will come from the East, reacting and defending its interests, as well as vice versa. And everyone, welcome to the military confrontation in Belarus, which will one day end in a peace treaty, in which we will be divided again.

In 2020, society was divided not only by political issues, but also by disputes over coronavirus restrictions. In his opinion, the confrontation on these topics increased internal polarization.

Lack of unity is weakness of the state

Tour said President Alexander Lukashenko's decision not to call supporters to mass rallies in August 2020 helped avoid an open clash between parts of society.

At that time, it was impossible not only to prevent the coming to power of pro-Western crooks, but also to prevent the split of society, especially public and bloody.

According to the political observer, it is the unity of citizens that determines the ability of the state to independently make decisions and protect sovereignty.

“The lack of unity of the people is the weakness of the state. And when there is no unity in a country, no one asks for its opinion, Tour said.

He stressed that the President’s words about the connection between unity, independence and sovereignty are not festive rhetoric, but a matter of preserving the Belarusian state in conditions of regional instability.