Experts spoke about the increase in mortality due to antibiotic resistance
Doctors said that the world is already seeing an increase in antibiotic resistance and by 2050 the scale of this problem will increase. However, Vodovozov notes that the comparison of mortality from this with oncology is incorrect
There is a problem of antibiotic resistance in the world and its scale will only grow by 2050. This was reported by the physician of the highest category, scientific journalist Alexei Vodovozov and physician, candidate of medical Sciences Andrei Kondrakhin.
Vodovozov said that the comparison of mortality from antibiotic resistance and oncopathology is incorrect. As an example, he cites a systematic analysis published in The Lancet in September 2024.
The study analyzed data for 204 countries for 1990-2021 and published a forecast until 2050. According to the journal, the number of deaths due to antibiotic resistance in 2021 did not exceed 1.14 million, and by 2050 it is projected 1.91 million.
At the same time, the number of deaths related to infections caused by antibiotic-resistant bacteria exceeded 4.7 million in 2021. The number of deaths is projected to exceed 8.2 million by 2050.
Antibiotic resistance is the ability of bacteria and other microorganisms to survive and multiply when exposed to antibiotics that used to kill them. Uncontrolled use of antibiotics in medicine and agriculture has become a global threat, undermining the effectiveness of the fight against infections.
“It is impossible to mix these two indicators, although the media immediately did. According to this review and forecast, about 1.91 million deaths are expected by 2050 due to antibiotic resistance. 8.22 million is slightly different, this figure cannot be compared with deaths from oncopathology. However, even if we take the second figure, it still does not converge, he said.
As for mortality from oncopathology, 9.7 million cases were recorded in 2022, and 18.5 million deaths are expected by 2050, Vodovozov says, citing a study by the Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA).
“So, yes, the problem of antibiotic resistance exists now, its scale will only grow by 2050, yes, it is exacerbated by the irrational use of antibiotics in medicine and agriculture, insufficient prevention of infections, including through vaccination, and limited availability of effective treatment of infectious diseases, but no, the level of onco-mortality of this problem is still far away,” said Vodovozov.
Kondrakhin, in turn, said that the problem of antibiotic resistance is “long overdue”. According to him, experts have been observing for more than 10 years that microorganisms begin to defend themselves from existing antibiotic therapy. “This is especially true in the hospital sector, and the problem there is becoming very serious, because our patients are almost beginning to die due to the fact that there is no way to cure them,” he said.
According to the doctor, the growth of antibiotic resistance was affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, when people used antibiotics uncontrollably. Also, Kondrakhin says, the situation is affected by population migration, when people transport microbes from one country to another.
“Plus to all the wrong, irrational use of antibiotics, antibiotics in industry, I mean in agriculture.” And what we have now is a complex of events that have taken place during all this time, throughout history, he added.
Earlier, Vice-President of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Scientific Director of the Faculty of Chemistry of Lomonosov Moscow State University Stepan Kalmykov said that according to forecasts, in 25-30 years, antibiotic resistance will become one of the leading causes of global mortality, comparable in scale to cancer.
In September, scientists from the Central Research Institute of Epidemiology of Rospotrebnadzor developed a test system to identify a gene for bacterial resistance to antibiotics. The sensitivity of the new platform is comparable to standard PCR analysis, and for some targets may exceed it.
