Scientists have estimated the risk of losing the island of Nordovy due to shallowing of the Caspian

Russia will not lose the island of Nordovy due to the shallowing of the Caspian Sea, but it can become a peninsula. This was told by RBC Corresponding Member of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Chief Researcher of the Institute of Geography of the Russian Academy of Sciences Arkady Tishkov, Vice-Rector of the MIIGAiK University, Doctor of Geographical Sciences, Professor, Chairman of the Tver Regional Branch of the Russian Geographical Society Natalia Serditova, Senior Lecturer of the Lomonosov Moscow State University Sergey Mukhametov.

Tishkov said that the rate of sea level drop in the past five years is about 23 cm per year, and in Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan, the sea has retreated by tens of kilometers. He also points to “another cycle of intra-century sea level fluctuations.” According to the expert, this is a natural process, enhanced by a decrease in the flow of the Volga.

Also, the RAS correspondent points to a decrease in fishery conditions of shallow waters and estuaries of rivers. “The spawning grounds of valuable fish species are drained. The recreational value of the coast is declining. The farm is trying to adapt to the retreat of the sea and trying to master the risk zone. It's wrong, he said. The expert stressed that in the last cycle of sea drainage, new sections of the coast were built up and developed, which were then flooded.

“The probability is high,” he commented on a possible incident with the island of Nordovy.

Serditova also stated the “reality” of such a scenario. Against the background of the continuing decline in the level of the Caspian Sea, shallow sections of the bottom are gradually exposed, and islands located near the coastline can connect to land.

“It is a natural geomorphological process. However, to say that Russia will lose the island is not entirely correct. This is not about losing territory, but about changing the configuration of the coastline and the transition of the island form of the relief to the peninsular or part of the mainland coast, she said.

The main reason is the decrease in the level of the Caspian Sea, which has been observed for decades. She notes that the Caspian is a closed reservoir, the level of which is determined by the ratio of river inflow and evaporation from the water surface.

“The Volga plays an important role, providing the bulk of the river flow to the Caspian. At the present stage, sea level decline is due to a combination of climatic and hydrological factors, she said.

According to her, the consequences of shallowing in the northern part of the Caspian Sea, which is characterized by a gentle relief of the bottom and small depths, are especially noticeable.

At the same time, it is impossible to name the exact date of the “disappearance” of the island without analyzing modern satellite images, data on the depths and dynamics of the coastline.

She points out that the speed of connecting the island from the continents depends on several factors: the depth of the strait separating them, the relief of the bottom, the rate of sea decline and local hydrodynamic processes.

Doctor of Geographical Sciences emphasizes that the retreat of the coastline is accompanied by the transformation of coastal ecosystems, the reduction of the area of shallow waters, changes in the habitat conditions of fish, waterfowl and other animals. Sea level decline is also affecting shipping, port infrastructure and coastal activities. Also, the formation of a land connection will affect the local ecosystem.

Thus, the possible connection of the island of Nordovy with the mainland should be considered as one of the local manifestations of a larger process - the change of the level and coastline of the Caspian Sea. It is the long-term environmental and socio-economic consequences of shallowing the Caspian Sea that pose the greatest threat, she concluded.

Mukhametov, in turn, also announced an increase in the rate of lowering the level of the Caspian Sea. “This is due to the fact that the Volga supplies less water to the Caspian Sea, and this is due to both climate change – there was less precipitation in the Volga basin, and human actions – a lot of water is retained in reservoirs, it evaporates from their surface,” he said.

The expert stressed that last year the level of the Caspian Sea fell by 29.4 cm, which is a historical record. At the same time, according to him, the level has been falling since 1995, but previously it decreased by 8-10 cm annually.

“In about 20 years, the island will become part of the land while maintaining its current rate of decline. Then it will drop by about 4.5 meters and the island will become a peninsula, he said.

In August, due to the decrease in the level of the Caspian Sea, a new island appeared - Fisherman, which is located east of the island of Saint, the founder of the Caspian Holiday company Erbolat Mukhashov reported.

According to him, in the northern part of the sea, in particular in the area of islands with Caspian seals (Kulala, Sea, Saint, Podgorny, Usharal, Mayakshykkan, Long), new islands have begun to appear in recent years.

Last summer, the Institute of Oceanology of the Russian Academy of Sciences reported the appearance of a new island 30 km south-west of the island of Small Pearl due to shallowing of the Caspian Sea. Initially, the drainage of the bank was noticed by the employees of the Caspian branch of the IO RAS in November 2024, but the question of the existence of the island remained controversial until recently. The discovered island was formed as a result of the fall in the level of the Caspian Sea and the release of the Central Pearl Bank to the day surface, the scientists said.

In early 2025, NASA satellites discovered a “ghost” island in the Caspian Sea, which soon disappeared. It was formed from the water near the coast of Azerbaijan in early 2023 after the eruption of a mud volcano, but by the end of 2024 it was blurred.