Experts assessed the threat of “zombie fires” due to the warm winter

“Zombie fires” are pockets of underground peat smoldering that can persist in winter and surface in spring. However, it is premature to associate their mass distribution exclusively with warm and snowy winters, experts polled by RBC believe.

"Zombie Fires" is not a new kind of natural disaster and certainly not the plot of a horror movie. The so-called fires, which are able to survive the winter in the form of slow underground decay, and in the spring again come to the surface. For Russia, this is a very real phenomenon, especially in areas with peat soils, said Ilya Rybalchenko, an expert on information and environmental security, senior lecturer at the Institute of International Economic Relations.

According to him, for the occurrence of such fires, a combination of several factors is necessary: dry organic soil, preserved foci of smoldering, oxygen access and conditions that allow the fire to survive the cold period. Snow and frost do not always stop burning, and snow cover can even help smoldering to remain underground.

Forecaster Tatiana Pozdnyakova in an interview with RBC also noted that the likelihood of peat fires depends on the amount of precipitation and soil condition. If there is little rainfall in winter and spring is dry, the top layer of peat may dry up and become combustible. At the same time, it is difficult to predict such fires in advance: the success of such forecasts, according to her, is no more than 20-30%. "It's not known if there will be a warm winter as the Hydrometeorological Center predicts, no one is talking about how much precipitation and snow will fall and remain as it melts and soaks into the ground to soak these peatlands," she said.

Ecologist Anatoly Batashev urged not to exaggerate the threat of “zombie fires” due to the warm winter. It is not necessary to scare Russians with “zombie fires” because of the snowy warm winter. Of course, where at the end of the year there were forest fires, the fire can go deep into the soil and winter there, and after the fall of snow again flare up, he said.

According to Batashev, such smoldering is possible not only in peatlands, but also in landfills, where combustible soil can smolder for months and years. Among the potentially vulnerable regions, he named Tomsk and Tyumen regions, Khanty-Mansiysk and Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrugs, as well as Yakutia. “There are also many peatlands in the center of Russia, but this year was relatively favorable and large forest fires in Central Russia were avoided,” the ecologist added.

Batashev also noted that in the spring, dry grass pals, which often cause forest fires, may pose a more serious threat. “It is much more dangerous in the snowless winter and in the spring – it is dry grass that can flare up, provoking forest fires, especially in Christmas trees. Dry grass is strictly forbidden, but every time there are idiots who set it on fire, the expert said.

According to the Ministry of Natural Resources, for the whole of 2024, an area of 6 million hectares was affected by fires in Russia, for the first half of 2025 - 4 million hectares, 90% of which fell on Buryatia and the Trans-Baikal Territory. The Emergencies Ministry specified later that for the whole of 2025, 317,311 fires were registered in the country - 8.7% less than in 2024.

Basaltec expert Marcel Shaykhraziev previously told RBC that the main causes of fires are careless handling of fire, violations of the rules of operation of electrical equipment, problems with furnace heating, fireworks and children's prank. Most of the incident occurred at night and evening, namely from 20:00 to 06:00.